Tonight, I discovered a very dangerous change in the market.

It's not that BTC dropped,
but that everyone's definition of "bottom"
changed three times in one day.
Morning:
Many people said 62000 was the bottom.
Afternoon:
Changed to 60000.
Evening:
59000.
Some have even started discussing 50000.
The price is falling.
Sentiment is falling faster.
Tonight BTC dropped to around 58100 at the lowest.
24-hour trading volume has significantly increased.
24-hour liquidations exceeded $600 million.
OI increased nearly 92% again.
But what I focus on most
is not these numbers.
Rather:
Retail investors are still constantly looking for new "bottoms."
After the sharp drop just now, looking back at today's discussion records among the participants is really interesting.
In the morning, they were still discussing:
"Can we buy the dip at 62000?"
By evening, it had turned into:
"Is 59000 the last drop?"
The biggest change in the market
is not the price.
Rather:
Everyone started rushing to prove they are right.
On the contrary, I think
the true bottom
is never guessed.
It is bought out by capital coming back in.
If ETF capital continues to flow out.
If trading volume is just amplified by panic.
If OI continues to increase,
it means capital is still in a tug-of-war.
The real major trend
may not be over yet.
From the chart perspective:
4-hour:
Still maintaining a bearish structure.
1-hour:
After breaking below the key moving average,
the bounce is very weak.
15-minute:
Quickly wicking to 58100,
then saw some recovery.
But currently,
it looks more like an oversold rebound,
rather than a trend reversal.
At least,
I haven't seen enough capital coming back in yet.
Tonight, I won't guess:
whether 59000 is the bottom.
I prefer to observe three things:
① Can the 59000 level hold?
② Can 60000 be re-established?
③ Has ETF capital flow improved?
If these three conditions haven't changed,
I would rather continue waiting.
The biggest risk today
is not that BTC dropped.
It is that more and more people
are starting to rush to buy the dip.
The biggest advantage in trading
is never buying at the lowest.
Rather:
It is having capital left on the table before the opportunity truly arises.
Tonight,
I choose to remain patient.
What about you?