#黄金行情 Spot gold repeatedly跌破 $4,000. Is the gold bull market over?

On June 26, international gold and silver experienced a short-term plunge. As of press time, spot gold once again fell below $4,000 per ounce, dropping over 1% intraday to $3,996.47 per ounce; spot silver fell over 2%, once losing the $56 per ounce mark.
International gold prices, from a high of $5,321 in early March, once fell below $4,000, a pullback of over 25%.
A research report from CICC pointed out that the current market panic mainly stems from two factors: inflation panic, where the US-Iran conflict pushes up oil prices and inflation, leading to market concerns about the resilience of US inflation, forming expectations of monetary tightening; and the Fed turning hawkish, as the market currently believes the Fed's policy focus is on "controlling inflation," with futures markets already pricing in one rate hike each in 2026 and 2027 to restore dollar credibility, and a stronger dollar suppressing gold.
Liu Dongbo, senior analyst at the Guotou Futures Research Institute, analyzed to Zhongxin Jingwei that recently, US inflation has strengthened, expectations for Fed rate hikes have intensified, US Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized a strong dollar tendency, and the US has promoted the use of the dollar for oil trade settlements with Iran and others, strengthening the dollar system. Multiple factors have driven a trend of dollar strength, and global risk assets have generally declined.
The CICC research report believes that the two factors of inflation panic and the Fed turning hawkish should not be linearly extrapolated: US inflation may have peaked and could enter a downward channel in the second half of the year. Walsh's debut does not mean the Fed has completely turned to tightening; the current stance may be to reserve room for future policy to return to easing. "Therefore, this round of gold correction is not the end of the bull market, and the turning point may not be far off."
CICC reviewed five gold bull markets since 1970 and found that the end of a bull market usually requires specific conditions: historically, gold bull markets have all ended when Fed policy tightened or the economy fully improved, and both conditions were necessary. Therefore, they remain optimistic about the future of gold, suggesting maintaining positions, buying on dips, and waiting for the turning point.
Li Gang, research director of the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, also stated in an interview with Zhongxin Jingwei that the international gold price breaking below $4,000 per ounce is not the end of the long-term gold bull market, but rather a phase correction after the rapid earlier rise.
Li Gang pointed out that from a medium to long-term perspective, the continuous increase in global central bank gold holdings, the global high debt environment, and the trend of diversifying international reserves have not changed, and gold's strategic allocation value still exists. It is expected that gold will shift from the previous unilateral rise to a high-volatility, wide-range oscillation phase, with short-term adjustment pressure still present, but the medium to long-term trend will still depend on Fed policy, the dollar trend, and changes in global geopolitical risks. Liu Dongbo believes that international gold prices will test support in the $3,900-$4,000 per ounce range, the low of the fourth quarter of 2025, in the short term and face a key directional choice. Once it breaks below, it will open up downside space.$XAUUSD