$BTC 6.26 Full-Day Integrated Analysis of the Crypto Market

BTC is currently around 59700, with a 24-hour decline of 2.86%. During the day, it repeatedly tested the 59000 level and officially lost the 60k mark. The rebound had no volume throughout and was merely a weak technical repair after overselling; ETH is significantly weaker than BTC, currently at 1560, with a 24h drop of nearly 5%. SOL, XRP, DOGE, etc., all declined simultaneously. Small-cap altcoins generally fell 4%-8%. Market funds only slightly flocked to BTC for safety.
The current Fear and Greed Index is 18, in the deep extreme fear zone; the total 24-hour liquidation across the network is $891 million, with long position liquidations accounting for $800 million. There was a concentrated stampede exit by longs. Coupled with consecutive days of net outflows from BTC and ETH spot ETFs, MSTR stock price plummeted 9.44%, institutions continued to reduce positions, and incremental market funds are completely depleted.
This round of decline is driven by four core negative factors:
The US May PCE inflation data exceeded expectations, with core PCE at 3.4% hitting a three-year high. The market probability of a September rate hike rose to 48%. Investment banks predict two rate hikes this year. High interest rates continue to suppress non-yielding crypto assets;
The Nasdaq fell for four consecutive days. Capital fled from Apple and the AI chip sector collectively. BTC's correlation with the Nasdaq is as high as 0.94. Weakness in US stocks directly drags the market;
A large amount of BTC options expired today. Longs in the market actively closed positions to deleverage. Frequent wicks appeared during trading, and volatility expanded significantly;
Fed officials continue to release hawkish statements, making it clear there are no short-term rate cut plans. US Treasury yields remain high, continuously diverting funds from risk assets.
Key Bullish and Bearish Price Levels
BTC
Short-term resistance: 60200-60500. The bearish trend remains unless it stabilizes with volume above this range;
First support at 59000. An effective breakdown will open downside space, with the next target at 57500-58000;
Strong resistance at 61500. A breakout with volume is needed to temporarily reverse the weakness.
ETH
Resistance range: 1600-1640; life-line support at 1530. If broken, look at ultimate support at 1500. No independent trend; it completely follows BTC's lead.
Two Future Scenarios
Base case (75% probability): Continued weakness during European and US sessions, repeatedly testing the 59000 support. A volume breakdown will trigger a new round of decline. Rebounds face resistance at 60500. The medium-term bearish structure remains intact;
Recovery case (25% probability): US Treasury yields fall, US stocks stop declining. BTC briefly rebounds above 61000, but it's only an oversold bounce. A second bottom may still follow, and conditions for a reversal uptrend are not met.
Trading Thoughts (Market Thoughts Only, Not Trading Advice)
Contracts: Before stabilizing above 60500, rebounds under pressure can be shorted with light positions. Reduce leverage throughout, do not aggressively bottom-fish. Do not blindly short at the 59000 level; guard against wicks that could stop out.
Spot: Stay on the sidelines. Do not aggressively bottom-fish on the left side. Only if there is sustained volume support below 59000, you can take very small positions to build long-term base positions in batches, reserving most of the capital for a second decline;
Altcoins: Avoid all at this stage. Their declines far exceed mainstream coins, rebound elasticity is extremely poor, and the risk-reward ratio is severely imbalanced.
Key Focus Today
US 10-year Treasury yield trend; higher yields increase pressure on crypto prices;
Intraday fluctuations of core tech stocks like Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia;
Abnormal capital movements from option expiry tonight; high incidence of large wicks; strictly control position size for contracts!