After 233 days and a drawdown of over 50%, is the current bear market the mildest one in history?

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Author: Coingecko

Translation: Felix, PANews

As of June 24, the current Bitcoin bear market has lasted 233 days, making it the fourth longest bear cycle among the seven bear cycles since 2014. This article defines a "bear cycle" as a period during which Bitcoin's closing price remains below its 200-day moving average (200 DMA) for 30 consecutive days or more.

A moving average is a technical indicator that identifies broader trends by smoothing out short-term price fluctuations. The 200-day moving average (200 DMA) specifically tracks the average closing price over the past 200 days and is a widely used benchmark for assessing the market's long-term direction.

Overview of Past Bear Cycles:

Daily closing price data sourced from CoinGecko, covering January 1, 2014, to June 24, 2026

The two longest bear cycles in Bitcoin's history were 2018–2019 (385 days) and 2022–2023 (381 days). Both were structural crashes following new highs, driven by excessive leverage and shattered confidence. The 2018–2019 bear market followed the peak of the ICO craze at the end of 2017, gradually easing as retail speculative activity faded and global regulatory pressure increased. The 2022–2023 bear market was triggered by the collapse of the Terra/LUNA ecosystem in May 2022, which subsequently led to a chain of bankruptcies involving Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, and ultimately FTX, completely destroying institutional investor confidence and dragging Bitcoin below $16k in November 2022.

The 2014–2015 bear market (321 days) was caused by the collapse of Mt. Gox, then the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, which completely shattered trust in the emerging market.

The remaining four bear cycles were shorter and triggered by more isolated shocks. The 2019–2020 correction (81 days) and the 2021 mid-cycle adjustment (80 days) were relatively brief—the former was a consolidation phase in the midst of a market recovery, while the latter was caused by China's mining ban, leading to a temporary plunge in hashrate and market sentiment. The 2020 "COVID crash" (52 days) was the most severe but bottomed out the fastest—a macro liquidity shock that was alleviated as global stimulus measures flooded the market.

The current 2025–2026 bear market (already 233 days as of the analysis) appears to stem from a broader macro shift: rising interest rate uncertainty, fading momentum after the halving rally, and the rise of AI as a speculative asset class. All these factors have weighed on Bitcoin since it reached an all-time high of $124,773 in January 2025.

How Bad Have Past Bear Markets Been?

The current 2025–2026 bear market is actually the mildest on record (hopefully), with a maximum drawdown of 51.2% from Bitcoin's all-time high of $124,773. Every previous bear cycle has seen larger declines, with three major bear markets experiencing drawdowns between 76.7% and 83.6%.

The most comparable event is the 2021 mid-cycle adjustment (drawdown 52.9%), although that event lasted only 80 days and occurred within a broader bullish trend rather than as an independent bear cycle.

The two most destructive cycles in history were the 2018–2019 bear market (drawdown 83.6%) and the 2014–2015 bear market (drawdown 81.6%), both of which erased the vast majority of Bitcoin's prior gains before bottoming out and recovering. The 2022–2023 cycle (drawdown 76.7%) was also severe, with Bitcoin falling from an all-time high of $67,617 to a low of $15,742 in November 2022.

Even the shorter, shock-induced crashes caused significant damage: the 2020 COVID crash, though lasting only 52 days, resulted in a 74.4% drawdown, highlighting how quickly crypto market sentiment and liquidity can deteriorate. The current cycle has avoided such severe destruction so far, possibly reflecting a more resilient market structure, higher institutional participation, or simply that the bear market is not yet over.

Is Recovery in Sight?

As of June 24, Bitcoin's 200 DMA stood at $76,450, while the spot price was $62,651—a difference of 22%. This means that to reclaim the 200 DMA, a sustained rebound of more than one-fifth from current levels is required. Historically, the 200 DMA has acted as a strong resistance level during price recoveries, not just a support level during declines.

Currently, Bitcoin is about 2.9% above the cycle low of $60,861 recorded on June 7, 2026. In previous bear markets, the time span from confirming a bottom to eventually reclaiming the 200 DMA ranged from as short as 65 days (2022–2023 cycle) to as long as 166 days (2014–2015 cycle). If June 7 is indeed the bottom of this bear cycle (which requires more time to confirm), then even under the fastest historical recovery pace, reclaiming the 200 DMA would take until at least August 2026.

Related Reading: Bitwise: Optimistic About Bitcoin's H2 2025 Performance; AI and Regulation Will Spark a New Altcoin Season