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In May 2026, durable goods orders fell by less than -4% month-over-month, a 100% certain market consensus.
Betting on a month-over-month decline of <-4% with a 99% probability, the blue curve has been steadily rising since June 10, with a sharp surge in late trading confirming the consensus. The market fully expects the data to show a deep decline, with a drop significantly below the -4% range being the only reasonable outcome.