*Update on US-Iran Geopolitics as of June 2026 bro:*

In short: *A fragile ceasefire, but full-scale war is postponed for now.* Market is still on edge.

### *1. Current status: 60-day ceasefire*
1. *US & Iran signed an MoU* in late April 2026 to extend the ceasefire by 60 days + reopen the Strait of Hormuz
2. *Strait of Hormuz begins to reopen*: Tankers have started passing through again. Oil shipments this week are the highest since the conflict began in Feb 2026. Oil prices briefly dropped to their lowest since March
3. *But the deal is not final*: Trump hasn't fully agreed, Iran says the text is not final. Negotiations in Switzerland were canceled 6 days ago because JD Vance canceled his attendance c2c2919354704edf

### *2. Still exchanging "defensive" strikes*
Despite the ceasefire, small-scale skirmishes continue:
- *US strikes again*: US shot down 4 Iranian drones + attacked a control station in Bandar Abbas last month. Said to be "purely defensive" to maintain the ceasefire
- *Iran retaliates*: IRGC fired at a US tanker in Hormuz, forcing it to turn back. Iran accuses the US of violating the ceasefire
- *IRGC proxies active*: IRGC set up new secret cells in Iraq to attack Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and UAE using drones in Apr-May. The US-Iran deal does not address these proxies 8a429c50e25d

### *3. Key unresolved issues*
1. *Nuclear*: Iran nuclear negotiations are still far from an agreement. Trump initially wanted "unconditional surrender," but the final deal doesn't include that
2. *Lebanon/Hezbollah*: Israel-Hezbollah just had a ceasefire 6 days ago. But Israel still shot 2 people in southern Lebanon 2 days ago. Iran insists: no peace in Lebanon = no deal with the US
3. *Strait of Hormuz*: Iran wants to jointly manage it with Oman and levy a "service fee." The US wants full free passage. Military vessels are not included in the opening commitment dd3754701473f1f975f8

### *4. Impact on markets/crypto*
1. *Oil volatile*: Every time there's news of a strike or ceasefire, Brent fluctuates 2-5%. This makes it hard for US inflation to drop = Fed gets more hawkish
2. *Risk-off*: When the US struck Iran 29 days ago, BTC and stocks immediately turned red. Investors fled to DXY and gold
3. *US Senate holds back war*: Senate voted 50-48 to tell Trump to stop military action against Iran. But it's non-binding on the White House 8a42b620

*Conclusion for traders:*
This geopolitical situation is a "wildcard." If the 60-day ceasefire fails + Iran actually closes Hormuz, oil could hit $120-150 → inflation rises → BTC crashes. If a deal actually goes through, risk-off decreases, money flows back to risk assets.