SpaceX fell from its pedestal, breaking below its IPO price in just 11 days!

On June 12, 2026, SpaceX landed on the Nasdaq, with a $75 billion fundraising scale setting a record for the largest IPO in human history. On its first day of trading, it closed up 19% at $160.95. Within just four trading days, it surged to $225, approaching a market cap of $3 trillion. Musk's three major narratives—Mars colonization, Starlink, and space computing—ignited global capital. Retail investors chased the highs wildly, and the entire internet hyped the permanent dividend of the space track.

The carnival lasted only one week, and on the 11th day of listing, it completely collapsed. On June 22, it plunged 16.43% in a single day to close at $154.6, directly falling below the closing price on its first day of listing, officially breaking below the IPO price. In three days, its market cap evaporated by over $600 billion, and investors who chased the highs suffered floating losses of over 30%.

Trigger of the crash: Just after completing the $75 billion fundraising, the company immediately announced the issuance of $20 billion in unsecured bonds, with the market questioning the depletion of cash flow. The deeper隐患 was even more fatal: a full-year loss of $30k in 2025, a single-quarter loss of $4.94B in Q1 2026, and revenue far from supporting a valuation of 100 times earnings. Coupled with rising expectations of a Fed rate hike, the tech sector saw collective sell-offs, and with a circulating share ratio of only 4.2%, downward volatility was amplified.

Many Wall Street institutions bluntly stated that SpaceX's high valuation relied entirely on Musk's personal aura, that space projects cannot deliver large-scale profits in the short term, and that long-term stories are hard to realize. Ironically, domestic investors who could not directly participate in the stock actually avoided this round of crash and being trapped.

The once universally sought-after trillion-dollar aerospace leader fell from its pedestal in just 11 days. This capital frenzy was ultimately paid for by retail investors who chased the rally.

Market Analysis (4-hour timeframe)

From the current chart: On the 4-hour timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward overall, with prices consistently running below the middle band, indicating a clear bearish trend.

MACD is below the zero axis, with bearish momentum dominating; KDJ has fallen into a low-level area, with only a slight oversold bounce forming, but no bullish reversal. The current minor rebound is just a technical repair after the big drop, and after the rebound ends, it is likely to continue downward.

Trading strategy: Short on bounces, do not blindly bottom-fish.
When the price rebounds to the 155-157 range and stalls, you can set up a short position, first target 146.8, break below then look for 142.
Only if it firmly holds above the 161.5 resistance line can the bearish strategy be temporarily abandoned.

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