Friday’s short-selling “waterfall” accelerates, plunging toward the cliff

The heavyweight PCE inflation data has settled the dust. The final figure is 3.4%, fully in line with market expectations, and it also sets a new phase high in nearly two years. Not only that—U.S. consumer spending data also surged beyond expectations, with the month-over-month figure strengthening to 0.7%. After these two sets of data land, the market completely erases all remaining imagination about the Fed cutting rates this year.

As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index and U.S. Treasury yields have continued to hold firmly at elevated levels. A normalized high-interest-rate environment becomes the norm, forming long-term suppression on non-yielding risk assets like cryptocurrencies—this is the core underlying logic behind crypto prices continuing to weaken recently, and it’s a major medium- to long-term bearish factor. Meanwhile, multiple Fed officials are expected to take turns giving speeches, and hawkish rate-hike rhetoric will most likely keep fermenting, continuously providing fuel to push the short-selling trend.

In the Friday early session, the market once again received another bearish signal: South Korean stocks fell further by 5%, triggering trading halts. This is also the second time this week an extreme plunge-and-halt pattern has appeared. Anyone familiar with the market knows that the last time South Korean stocks tanked sharply, it directly dragged down global risk assets, with bearish sentiment spreading across the board. This time, the selloff coincides with a key Friday timing window. Coupled with the complete fading of the positive effect from Micron Technology, if U.S. stocks continue to slide in the evening, it easily could trigger a chain-reaction “black swan” scenario—accelerating the market’s breakdown.

Right now, the news backdrop and the technical picture are in perfect “bow-string resonance,” and the market’s downtrend weakness has been fully established. The entire technical cycle is weakening: the daily chart keeps printing consecutive bearish candles and falling, the weekly chart has effectively broken down to new lows, and the monthly chart closes with a big bearish pattern—an ominous “dark clouds covering the top” bearish structure is fully formed. At this stage, the market is basically left with almost no effective room for a rebound. Going into the end of the month, the overall market will likely continue to maintain a weak, choppy-to-down pattern. In terms of trading, be firm and clear: don’t guess the bottom, and don’t bet on an oversold rebound. From start to finish—follow the trend to stay bearish, follow the trend to sell ↓!

Define the key battle zones clearly: the main overhead pressure zone is 605—615. The first support below is 556, and the ultimate support is 538.

The current trading idea is simple and straightforward. For “the big pie,” there’s no need to obsess over pinpointing exact levels—just lightly position and “make a short into the abyss” right now. And if there’s only a small pullback later, that will be an excellent opportunity to add to the shorts!

For the big coin, the first downside target of this leg is 556. If it breaks, follow the trend down to 538—break below the lows and probe lower step by step. Ethereum will move in sync with the bears’ rhythm: first target 1385, with deeper downside to 1268!

In the end, “empty out your life,” empty out “miracles.”