STRC preferred stock and Bitcoin correlation rate hits new high: Strategy's stable income attribute is disappearing

The 90-day correlation coefficient between Strategy's STRC perpetual preferred stock and Bitcoin has approached 0.70, a new high since its launch in July 2025. This indicates that this preferred stock, designed to be a "stable income" type product, is increasingly moving in sync with Bitcoin's price fluctuations.
(Background: STRC Preferred Stock Breaks Below Par Value to New Low: Strategy's Funding Tightens, Saylor Hints at Imminent Bitcoin Accumulation)
(Additional Context: Bitcoin Drops Below $59,100, Liquidating Long Positions! $988 Million Liquidated in 24 Hours, Fear Index Plunges to 12)

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• STRC Down 23% This Month, Underperforming Bitcoin
• The Model of Issuing Stock to Fund Bitcoin Purchases Faces Challenges
• Two Divergent Market Views

The price correlation between MicroStrategy's STRC perpetual preferred stock and Bitcoin has shown a turning signal—data reveals that the 90-day correlation coefficient between STRC and Bitcoin has risen to nearly 0.70, a new high since its listing in July 2025. Compared to the average level of around 0.5 over the same period, this sharp increase in correlation suggests that STRC is gradually losing its "quasi-fixed income" stability positioning.

STRC Down 23% This Month, Underperforming Bitcoin

Data shows that STRC has fallen 23% this month to $76, while Bitcoin has dropped approximately 20% over the same period, breaking below the $60k mark first. STRC has a par value of $100 and is currently trading at a discount of about 24%, corresponding to an annualized dividend yield of 11.5%.

From the perspective of traditional fixed-income products, a 24% discount is quite substantial. For comparison, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond is around 4.4%, and STRC's dividend yield is about 2.6 times that, but its volatility has also amplified accordingly.

The Model of Issuing Stock to Fund Bitcoin Purchases Faces Challenges

Strategy's STRC design logic is straightforward: maintain the stock price near par value → continuously issue new shares → use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. When STRC's price is significantly below its $100 par value, the company needs to issue more shares to maintain the same purchasing power in BTC, which increases dilution.

Notably, Strategy has recently started selling small amounts of Bitcoin to pay dividends, contrasting with Michael Saylor's "never sell Bitcoin" strategy upheld for years. In a post on June 24, Ki Young Ju, founder of CoinQuant, pointed out that Strategy's buying is more like a "liquidity absorber" rather than a "price catalyst," suggesting a pause in accumulation until cash reserves recover.

Two Divergent Market Views

Some investors believe that STRC's current discount presents a dual opportunity: high dividends and potential capital appreciation. If Bitcoin rebounds to the $70k range, STRC is likely to follow and narrow the gap to its par value.

Another camp worries that if the downturn persists, Strategy's ability to issue stock for financing could be further constrained. Considering STRC's issuance scale—the company originally planned to issue 21 billion STRC preferred shares through an ATM facility—if market demand is insufficient, its pace of accumulating Bitcoin will slow down.

For Taiwanese investors, this also offers a perspective: the movement of STRC's correlation coefficient suggests that the boundary between "Bitcoin assets" and "fixed income" is blurring. Preferred stock products, once marketed for their low volatility and stable cash flows, now have volatility matching or even exceeding the underlying asset itself. When the correlation reaches new highs, investors are effectively bearing Bitcoin's price risk rather than the traditional "stable income."