Weekly Summary 260626

1. Storage skyrocketing, Micron's performance exploding, margin exceeding $NVDA . After all end-device semiconductor and AI manufacturers paid the TSMC tax, they now start paying the storage tax.
It seems SK Hynix's performance will be even more explosive, but the acceleration is getting faster. Approaching the speed of light, how will the car stop? Will it be ChangXin (listing at end of July) and ChangCun?
2. The upstream supply chain surge has finally passed to the user end. $AAPL Phones and computers generally rose 10% (stock price fell 6%). $AMZN Cloud GPU prices generally rose 20%. Everyone can't hold on anymore. Not only HBM, DRAM, MLCC have skyrocketed, even the upright and honest $TSM couldn't resist and raised foundry prices by about 10%.
Those capable of robbing are robbing on the road. Those not capable are desperately borrowing and raising money. A spectacular sight.
3. The four major Hyperscalers - $MU - $NVDA have negative free cash flow of 600 billion. Even Old Man Alibaba's cash flow has turned negative. Except for upstream raw materials, foundries, and Nvidia, the entire industry is collectively bleeding.
On one hand, the huge pressure of transitioning from virtual to real heavy asset investments. On the other hand, the supply premium caused by exploding demand. It's like the Eurasian plate colliding with the Indian subcontinent plate.
Among the Mag7, besides Nvidia, $AMZN has slightly better cash flow, because on one hand it invested in Anthropic and strongly tied its own chips, on the other hand its Cloud also tied to Anthropic and compliance is better.
4. The most important model side
Anthropic's six-month ARR is 64B, annual revenue close to 100B, margin above 50%. Its September listing valuation may approach 1.5–2 trillion. Tokens replacing junior knowledge workers is just a matter of time and speed.
Due to Sam Altman's many conflicts of interest and related investments, OpenAI needs to clear too many hurdles. The difficulty of achieving an IPO this year has increased.
Gemini is being choked by Jensen Huang's supply chain blockade, continuously underperforming. The departure of two key figures adds insult to injury. Old Buffett is going to be trapped for a while.
5. Specifically to US stocks:
- CPO collectively massacred. Those who bought the top from White Hair $SIVE $AAOI have it for life;
- Space collectively committing suicide. Elon Musk's meme show is over. Next is the plot of unlimited dilution and unlimited eating pies;
- MicroStrategy playing with fire and getting burned. BTC becomes a slug. Son of Bitch @saylor's genius bond design using AI blew up 🦙.
6. Who will pay for AI next?
Market money votes with its feet, not going to Hyperscalers nor Newcloud, but instead flocking to semiconductor bandits. It seems only national credit endorsement or government money.
Rate hike? Rate hike will directly pierce AI's Achilles' heel: the funding demand for massive investments.
Even if replaced by Greenspan, give him 100 guts, he wouldn't dare to raise rates this year.
The only madman with the guts to raise rates is Trump. But will he?
Stay Safe. The winds are high and waves are rough. Be careful not to become the fish that gets caught.