YANG GUANG BIT | June 26 $BTC Precision Strategy, Full Trend Control

Today's Ideas
Entry Timing: Price rebounds to the 60000-60300 range
Short Position Replenishment: Rallies to the 60600-60900 range
Stop Loss Settings
Unified Stop Loss for Short Positions: Set above 61300
Tiered Profit Targets
First Short Target: 59000-59200
Second Short Target: 58200-58500
Breakdown Add Position Target: Below 57500
Core Conclusion
After BTC hit a new low of 58031 overnight, there was a brief oversold rebound, but the larger bearish trend has not reversed. This rebound was entirely driven by short covering, with volume continuing to shrink and lacking incremental capital inflow. The resistance from upper moving averages and trapped positions is layered, leading to weak rebound sustainability and further downside potential. Today’s strategy remains focused on shorting on rebounds, with light long positions at lows as a supplement, capturing the deterministic decline profits along the trend.

Market Logic Breakdown
1. Sentiment: Macro Pressure Persists, No New Positive Support
The Fed's hawkish expectations continue to ferment, with the timing of rate cuts this year further delayed. The U.S. Dollar Index remains elevated, and macro liquidity tightening continues to suppress risk asset valuations. There are no significant new positive catalysts in the market; the previous rebound catalysts have been fully priced in, and coin prices lack fundamental support for sustained upward movement.
2. Capital Flow: No Incremental Capital, Rebound Foundation Weak
BTC spot ETF funds continue to see net outflows, and institutions did not take the opportunity to buy the dip during the crash. This rebound is entirely driven by forced short covering, with no incremental buying support. The derivatives market funding rate remains weak, open interest shows no significant recovery, and longs lack the will to chase higher, limiting the rebound's upside potential.$BTC ‌#美光市值超越Meta跻身全美前十