Wu said that analyst Adam Livingston posted on X, saying he conducted a three-year stress test on MSTR, assuming Bitcoin drops to $26,611 in the 6th month, mNAV falls below 0.50x, capital markets close, and BTC must be sold to pay priority debt. The model shows that the debt ratio rises from 41.5% to 96.7%, BTC per common share drops from 138,161 sats to 7,884 sats, and MSTR stock price model falls to $1.01; after cash runs out in the 9th month, 115,727 BTC would need to be sold within three years. In the final scenario, MSTR still holds 731,636 BTC, with an mNAV of 1.40x. Livingston stated that the model shows the main risk is compression of BTC per common share, not "instant bankruptcy" or "death spiral."

BTC-2.34%
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