June 26 Core Signals for the Ethereum Market

· Technicals under full pressure: Price is suppressed by moving averages across all timeframes, with key resistance in the $1,634 - $1,680 zone. Only a strong break above **$1,700** can reverse the short-term downtrend. Core support lies at **$1,550 - $1,600**; if lost, a drop to **$1,500** or lower is possible.
· Liquidations & macro events: If ETH rebounds above $1,649, major CEXs will face up to $730 million in short liquidation pressure, potentially triggering a sharp short-term rally. However, the concentrated options expiration on June 26 may also amplify market volatility – risk management is crucial.
· Fundamentals leaning bearish: The ETH/BTC ratio has fallen to near two-year lows, ETFs continue to see net outflows, and the Ethereum Foundation layoff news has further dampened market sentiment.

🎯 Two Trading Approaches for Today

· Trend-following short (higher probability): If the price rebounds to the $1,634 - $1,680 range and shows clear rejection, a light short position can be taken. Place stop loss above **$1,690 - $1,720**, first target **$1,600**, then **$1,550 - $1,500** if broken.
· Cautious counter-trend long (aggressive only): Only consider a light long position if a clear volume-supported stabilization signal appears near **$1,530 - $1,550**, with a strict stop loss below that support at 1495. If **$1,600** cannot be held, do not hold for long.

Summary: The current market favors bears, but short liquidations near $1,649 could create short-term volatility. It is recommended to prioritize shorting on rallies, closely monitor key support and resistance levels, and always use light positions with strict stop losses, placing risk control first.