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3 minutes ago, the 0.0036 integer level was broken through. The 17% rally was actually a bull trap. Brothers trading contracts with 10x leverage who were in floating profit and should have run but didn't. Just now, Bessent's speech turned hawkish, hinting at no rate cut in May.
Look at how G pumped and swept shorts when CPI 3.1 beat expectations last night, exactly the same as the fake support at 0.0032 before tonight's NFP night.
Using my three years of experience watching the macro screen to dissect: the negative correlation of -0.72 between the US Dollar Index and G is real, but the 2-year Treasury yield jumping to 4.63% has pushed the total leverage of risk assets to a critical level. WTI crude oil holding at 72.8 can cover for G to continue charging, but once the EIA inventory data blows up beyond expectations, 0.0029 is paper.
Key point: Don't chase long at 0.0036. Wait for a retrace to the 0.0032-0.0033 area to enter 20% spot position, stop loss if it breaks below 0.0029. Take profit at 0.0042, the time window is to bet on a dovish statement in next Wednesday's FOMC minutes.
Don't just look at the charts. The closed-door meeting minutes of Chicago Fed President Goolsbee early tomorrow morning are the hidden bomb that could crash the market.