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Three minutes ago, the 0.0036 integer level was broken through. The 17% increase was actually a bull trap. For those brothers trading contracts with 10x leverage, if you had floating profits and didn't exit, just now Bessent's hawkish speech hinted at no rate cut in May.
You see, the way G pumped to liquidate short positions when last night's CPI of 3.1 exceeded expectations is exactly the same as the fake support at 0.0032 before tonight's non-farm payroll night.
Using my three years of macro trading experience to dissect: The dollar index's -0.72 negative correlation weakening with G is real, but the 2-year US Treasury yield jumping to 4.63% has pushed the total leverage of risk assets to a critical level.
WTI crude oil stabilizing at 72.8 can cover G to continue surging, but once the EIA inventory data blows up beyond expectations, 0.0029 will be paper.
Key point: Don't chase long at 0.0036. Wait for a pullback to the 0.0032-0.0033 range to add 20% position in spot. Stop loss if it breaks below 0.0029. Take profit target at 0.0042, and the time window is to bet on next Wednesday's Fed minutes being dovish.
Don't just look at the chart. The closed-door meeting minutes of Chicago Fed President Goolsbee in the early hours of tomorrow are the hidden bomb that could crash the market.