Bitcoin has fallen below $60k, and the quarterly settlement is less than 24 hours away.

Market risks are accumulating, but shorts are not pressing the advantage. This may mean that some short-term selling pressure has been released, but the real main battlefield has not yet begun. Before and after the quarterly settlement, volatility tends to expand, and directional choices often occur after settlement.
On-chain signals are also diverging: long-term holder selling volume has hit a 19-month low, but miner profit margins are being squeezed, and loss supply has reached an all-time high. Some are accumulating, some are holding on, and some are betting on a rebound.
ETF has seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, macro PCE inflation remains high, the US stock AI sector has plummeted, and the crypto market is not isolated. But the structure of the derivatives market shows that short crowdedness is already high, and once a rebound occurs, it can easily trigger a short squeeze.
For traders, in the low liquidity environment before settlement, any breakout in either direction may be amplified. But chasing shorts or catching bottoms requires clarity: are you betting on the direction after settlement, or betting on short-term volatility?
There is no inevitable rise or fall, only position management and risk control.
$btc #defi #etf #链上数据 #ai