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3 minutes ago, the 0.0036 integer level was broken through. The 17% increase was actually a bull trap. For those brothers trading futures contracts with 10x leverage, they had unrealized profit but didn't exit. Just now, Bessent's hawkish remarks hinted that there will be no rate cut in May.
Look at the move last night when CPI came in at 3.1% above expectations, G surged to squeeze shorts. It's exactly the same as the false support at 0.0032 before tonight's non-farm payroll night.
Using my three years of experience watching macro markets to break it down: The US dollar index's -0.72 negative correlation with G weakening is real, but the 2-year US Treasury yield jumping to 4.63% has already compressed the total leverage of risk assets to a critical level. WTI crude oil steadying at 72.8 can cover G to continue rallying, but once the EIA inventory data blows up beyond expectations, 0.0029 is just paper.
Key point: Don't chase longs at the 0.0036 level. Wait for a pullback to the 0.0032-0.0033 area to enter spot with 20% position, stop loss if it breaks below 0.0029. Take profit target at 0.0042. The time window is a bet on the Fed's dovish minutes next Wednesday.
Don't just look at the charts. The closed-door meeting minutes of Chicago Fed President Goolsbee early tomorrow morning are the hidden bomb that could smash the market.