## Gold Morning Report | June 26 Friday 🪨

### Core Data
| Indicator | Value |
|------|------|
| Spot Gold | **$4,030/oz** (+0.09%, Asian session) |
| Last Night's Low | $3,958 (7-month low, broke below $4,000) |
| 7-Day Change | **-3.4%** (fell from $4,160 to here) |
| ATH Retracement | **-28.2%** ($5,598→$4,030) |
| Domestic Gold Price | 873 RMB/g (SGE) |
| Bank Gold Bars | ~890 RMB/g |

Last Night's Big Events

**Deep V Reversal**: Gold price broke below $4,000 intraday to $3,958 (first time in 7 months), long funds entered collectively in the early hours, US tech stocks profit-taking flight → safe-haven funds poured into gold, straight to $4,042. 865 RMB (domestic) support level tested multiple times and held.

**Three Major Pressures Unchanged**:
- Fed rate hike expectations (market pricing 89% probability of 25bp hikes each in Sep and Dec)
- ETF speculative funds continue to exit
- Multiple investment banks collectively lowered targets (Goldman $4,900, Deutsche Bank Q3 $4,300, Citi $4,000)

**Banks Tightening Leverage**: Huaxia, GF, and BOC simultaneously raised margin on gold deferred contracts to 120%+, restricting retail leveraged trading.

### Resistance and Support
- **Support**: $3,960 (last night's low) → $3,900 (psychological level) → $3,857 (Fibonacci)
- **Resistance**: $4,060 → $4,100 → $4,300 (Deutsche Bank Q3 target)
- **Deutsche Bank Extreme Scenario**: If rates are hiked 3-4 times, gold could fall to $3,800

### Strategy
- **Short-term**: Range-bound between $3,960-$4,060, early morning deep V shows strong buying support at $3,950-$3,960 (central banks buy more on dips), but resistance above at $4,060-$4,100 is also heavy
- **Medium-term**: PCE is the watershed — wait for the data to decide direction
- **Long-term**: Central bank gold purchases + de-dollarization logic unchanged, JPMorgan still sees year-end at $6,000. Buying in batches on dips in the current range is fine, but don't use leverage

### Key Time Points
- **Tonight 20:30** 🔥 US May PCE data (core PCE y/y expected 3.4%)
- ≥3.5% → rate hike expectations surge → gold may retest $3,850-$3,900
- ≤3.2% → hawkish correction → bounce to $4,100-$4,150
- In line → weak consolidation $3,950-$4,100
- **Tomorrow** $10B BTC options expiry (indirectly affects risk appetite)
- **First week of July** Real directional choice after options expiry

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In a word: $4,000 is a meat grinder for bulls and bears. Last night's deep V shows bearish momentum is fading, but before tonight's PCE shows positive news, don't rush to buy the dip. Wait for the data to speak.