Today’s fatigue is both physical and mental. On the one hand, after Micron’s earnings report turned out well, both U.S. stocks and Bitcoin saw an optimistic rebound. On the other hand, we’re just waiting for the core PCE data. Although the data wasn’t unexpected, the inflation is still reasonable relative to expectations. As I’ve been saying recently, the inflation is from the period of the U.S. and Iran war—not now. After three months of fighting, oil prices have already fallen from around $100 to $70.

In other words, for the inflation that rose over three months, it should theoretically return to normal within three to four months. Also, the pace of the oil price decline has surprised many investors. It’s very possible that by August or September, inflation will show a clear drop—meaning the likelihood of a rate hike in September is too low. After the inflation data was released, U.S. stocks did indeed fall again, and $BTC also saw another downturn, but U.S. stocks had already completed a recovery by the early morning.

Compared with yesterday’s close, the Nasdaq is up nearly 1%, and the S&P 500 has also returned to positive territory. This suggests that if the drop was caused by core PCE, the stock market has already absorbed it. But Bitcoin is genuinely uncomfortable: when it falls, it falls more, and when it rises, the rebound is much weaker—especially given the FUD around $MSTR , which has kept Bitcoin bearish all the way.

I can’t be sure how prices will move in the short term, but if it really is due to core PCE, I believe U.S. stocks can react in time. For Bitcoin, it’s just a matter of time before it catches up. Of course, it’s also possible that some investors sell Bitcoin to buy U.S. stocks, and that’s normal.

After all, $MU Micron’s earnings were so excellent. That means over the next month, before Nvidia’s earnings report, the market won’t be overly worried about the AI bubble. But for cryptocurrencies, what still needs to be restored is users’ confidence. #BTC下探60000美元关键关口 $BTC ‌