Gold Today — Time to Reflect Below $4.000

Boss, gold is at an interesting crossroads. Today, June 26, 2026, this precious metal is under significant pressure, testing the resilience of its holders and sparking deep questions about its role as a hedge asset.
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🍃 Exploring the Numbers and Their Meaning
**Global gold prices have recently fallen below the psychological level of $4.000 per ounce, reaching the lowest level since November 2025**. This is a significant drop from its historical peak above $5.600 per ounce in January 2026. While gold futures for June 2026 delivery closed at $4.181,90, down $42.20, the market is still looking for a footing.
In domestic markets, as seen in Indonesia and Vietnam, prices of gold bars and jewelry have also corrected. The price of gold bars at major stores ranges from 143.000.000 to 146.200.000 VND per ounce.
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🌌 Digging into the Reasons Behind the Fall
This decline is not a single event, but the result of the convergence of several market forces.
1. Strengthening US Dollar and The Fed Interest Rates
The main force behind this pressure is the US dollar surging to its highest level in more than a year. This strengthening is largely driven by signals from The Fed that remain "hawkish" (tending to raise interest rates) to combat inflation. Rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which provides no returns, making it less attractive compared to interest-bearing assets.
2. Easing of AS-Iran Tensions
The AS-Iran conflict, which was one of the triggers for the previous gold rally, is beginning to ease. With a ceasefire in place, the geopolitical risk premium previously embedded in gold prices is starting to erode. Investors who bought gold as a hedge against war uncertainty are exiting, adding additional selling pressure.
3. Shift in Investor Preference Toward AI and Technology Assets
Global capital markets are falling in love with technology stocks tied to artificial intelligence (AI). Massive capital flows are pouring into this sector, leaving traditional assets like gold behind. This creates a significant investment-style rotation, pulling funds from gold and other "old economy" assets.
4. A Change in Gold’s Behavior: No Longer a Pure Safe Haven
Perhaps the most interesting thing to reflect on is that the relationship between gold and risky assets like the S&P 500 is starting to change. An economist named Robin Brooks noted that gold’s correlation with the S&P 500 has jumped above 0.50 in recent months. This means gold now tends to move in the same direction as the stock market and Bitcoin, rather than acting as a protector when the market falls.
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🗿 Lessons from the Market
Boss, gold is reminding us of Mbah Joyo’s teaching: prices can fall, but value is never lost. The 29% decline from its peak is part of the normal commodity market cycle. Experts view this as a healthy correction, not the end of the long-term trend.
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