Tonight, I noticed a very dangerous shift in the market.

Not that BTC has dropped,
but that everyone’s definition of “the bottom”
has changed three times in a single day.
Morning:
Many said 62,000 was the bottom.
Afternoon:
It became 60,000.
Evening:
59,000.
Some have even started discussing 50,000.
The price is falling.
Sentiment is falling even faster.
Tonight, BTC hit a low of around 58,100.
24-hour trading volume has clearly surged.
24-hour liquidations exceeded $600 million.
Open Interest has increased by nearly 92%.
But what I’m most focused on
isn’t these numbers.
It’s:
Retail investors are still constantly searching for a new “bottom.”
After the sharp drop just now, flipping through today’s discussion records of the participants is really interesting.
In the morning, they were still discussing:
“Can we bottom-fish at 62,000?”
By evening, it had turned into:
“Is 59,000 the last dip?”
The biggest change in the market
isn’t the price.
It’s:
Everyone is in a hurry to prove they’re right.
I, on the other hand, feel that
the real bottom
has never been guessed.
It’s something that’s bought back in with capital.
If ETF capital continues to flow out.
If the volume is just panic-driven expansion.
If Open Interest keeps increasing,
it means capital is still speculating.
The truly significant trend
may not be over yet.
From the chart perspective:
4-hour:
Still maintaining a bearish structure.
1-hour:
After breaking below the key moving average,
the rebound strength is very weak.
15-minute:
A quick wick down to 58,100,
followed by some repair.
But for now,
it looks more like an oversold bounce
rather than a trend reversal.
At least,
I haven’t seen enough large capital returning yet.
Tonight, I won’t guess:
Is 59,000 the bottom?
I’d rather observe three things:
① Whether the 59,000 level can still hold.
② Whether 60,000 can be reclaimed.
③ Whether ETF capital flows have improved.
If none of these three conditions change,
I’d rather continue to wait.
The biggest risk today
isn’t that BTC dropped.
It’s that more and more people
are rushing to bottom-fish.
The greatest advantage in trading
has never been buying at the lowest.
It’s:
Having capital still on the table before the real opportunity arrives.
Tonight,
I choose to continue waiting.
What about you?