#BTC BTC technical pattern: The current price of $61,079 is below the pivot point PP ($61,140), near the bull-bear boundary, with the direction still unclear. The price has broken below the 30-day volume control point POC ($63,647), indicating that the short-term volume concentration zone has shifted from support to resistance. The price is far below the 50EMA ($68,240) and the 200SMA ($76,203), confirming a clearly bearish medium-term trend. The first support S1 ($59,041) and the lower edge of the value area at $60,688 form a resonance zone, which is the most critical defense line for bulls. If S1 is broken, the next support will point to S2 ($57,004). On the resistance side, R1 ($63,177) and the POC ($63,647) form a strong resistance band.

**Price Action Analysis**
**Short term (1-5 days)**
**Technical:** BTC is consolidating in a narrow range of $59,041-$61,140. The 4-hour RSI is in oversold territory, indicating a need for a technical rebound. However, price has failed to hold above PP ($61,140); rebound momentum is insufficient. If price drops below $60,920 (the 24h low) again, it may test S1 ($59,041).

**Sentiment:** The Fear index at 12 is at an extreme level of fear. Historically, this often corresponds to short-term bottom areas, but a catalyst is needed to confirm a reversal. Machi’s ETH liquidation event may trigger a chain reaction; attention should be paid to the liquidation risk of other high-leverage positions.

**Event-driven:** Tonight, the United States will release the final Q1 GDP and the May PCE price index, key data that will affect expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. If the PCE data falls more than expected, it could boost risk assets; if the data remains resilient, it may intensify selling pressure in the market.

**Medium term analysis (1-3 months)**
**Policy window:** After the Federal Reserve’s June FOMC meeting, market pricing for the rate-cut path has become more conservative. If subsequent inflation data continues to decline, the probability of a September rate cut may rise again. This would be an important macro driver for a medium-term rebound in the crypto market.

**ETF capital flows:** Current BTC ETFs are still seeing net outflows, and institutional capital is in a wait-and-see posture. A reversal in ETF flows requires clear policy signals or confirmation of a price bottom. Institutional positions’ cost range is approximately between $58,000 and $62,000. The current price is approaching this area, which may attract some bargain-buying.

**Liquidity expectations:** Major global central banks (excluding Japan) remain in a tightening or wait-and-see stance, and the liquidity environment is not friendly to risk assets. After illness, the Governor of the Bank of Japan said it will “raise rates again at the appropriate time.” If yen carry trades are further unwound, it may cause a short-term shock to global risk assets (including crypto).

**Long-term analysis (6-12 months)**
**Macro trend:** Under the global de-dollarization trend, the logic of gold and Bitcoin as alternative reserve assets remains valid. The scale of tokenized commodities has already exceeded $7.1 billion, and a clear structural growth trend is evident, providing a new value anchor for the crypto market.

**Structural changes:** The supply shock from Bitcoin’s halving will gradually become apparent over the next 6-12 months. Historical patterns show that the major rally typically appears 12-18 months after the halving. The current price is at a relatively low level after the halving, and the value for long-term allocation is beginning to show.

**Central re-pricing:** As institutionalization accelerates (e.g., MicroStrategy, ETFs, etc.), Bitcoin’s volatility center may gradually move downward, but the price center will move upward. If the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cut cycle, easing global liquidity will drive BTC to be re-priced again. The long-term target range could be seen at $85,000-$100,000.

**Key focus points**
**Short term:** Tonight 20:30 — the final Q1 GDP for the United States and the May PCE price index; the subsequent moves of whale Machi’s ETH long positions; whether BTC can hold the S1 ($59,041) support
**Medium term:** The July FOMC meeting (July 29-30); U.S. June CPI data (mid-July); changes in weekly BTC ETF flows
**Long term:** Changes in the probability of a September FOMC rate cut; the pace of shifts in monetary policy by major global central banks; the tightening effect after Bitcoin’s halving becoming evident