This week's final important data is released: - US May Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year 3.4% (Market Expectation: 3.4%; Prior: 3.3%) — In line with expectations - US May Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month 0.3% (Market Expectation: 0.3%; Prior: 0.3%) — In line with expectations First, a nine-character review of this report: "Not scary, but not gentle enough." What the market fears most is an above-expectation reading, as that would directly reinforce the "Fed must hike" trade. But this time, core PCE did not exceed expectations, so it won't create new panic. However, it also did not fall short of expectations. Rate hike fears have temporarily cooled, while hopes for rate cuts remain suppressed. Looking at the numbers themselves, core inflation rose to 3.4%, which is 1.7 times the inflation target, and the Fed cannot yet ease off. Over a longer time horizon, this "in-line" 3.4% actually hides a thorn — it hasn't turned downward, but is instead climbing slightly, hitting a new high since November 2023. For the newly appointed, hawkish Fed Chair Warsh, this is clearly not good news. Second, since the market had already priced in inflation concerns earlier this week (front-loaded expectations), the in-line data caused little market volatility — but an counter-intuitive scenario emerged: gold prices rose, and the U.S. dollar fell. The market is not cheering the PCE; it's just confirming that the worst-case scenario didn't happen, thereby removing some excessive defensive positioning. Third, the big PCE stone has already dropped tonight, and the market will shift some attention to adjusting positions, preparing for tomorrow's "Friday plus weekly close." Since tonight is Thursday, the market still has a one-day trading buffer, and the pressure from "panic selling" or risk-off rebalancing in the final U.S. stock market session tonight will be much lighter than on Friday evening. Capital movements will be more composed, focusing mainly on quarter-end adjustments and intraday high-frequency profit-taking, with long-short back-and-forth tugging. For the remaining time tonight, do not blindly chase rallies or sell-offs — this is more like a "fake fall and fake bounce" triggered by expectation deviation correction. The battle for end-of-quarter pricing power has already begun tonight, and the climax will unfold tomorrow night.

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