I. Macro Background (Determines Medium-Term Trends)

1. The Fed’s hawkish stance strikes again (core bearish factor)
The June FOMC dot plot sharply raised the terminal rate, with market pricing implying a 77% probability of another rate hike within 2026, pushing rate cut expectations directly to 2027.
Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar strengthened, with the high-rate environment continuing to suppress risk asset valuations. Bitcoin and Ethereum, as high-leverage growth assets, face much greater pressure than gold.

2. Institutional capital continues to flow out, incremental liquidity drying up
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, the longest redemption cycle since their listing. Institutions are passively reducing positions and fleeing to safety, leaving only speculative trading within the existing pool.

3. Risk appetite weakens across the board
U.S. tech stocks have corrected, the VIX is rising, and the crypto market is suffering synchronized sell-offs. Concentrated liquidations of leveraged contracts have amplified volatility, magnifying short-term sell pressure.

4. Ethereum’s fundamental-specific bearish factors
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken (consistently underperforming relative to Bitcoin). On-chain activity remains low, and the Q3 Glamsterdam upgrade has no near-term speculative catalyst, making ETH’s elasticity even weaker.​