‍#广场预测世界杯赢40000U

#广场预测世界杯赢40000U
Can the Kangaroo Legion advance by winning? -- Little Fortune’s World Cup betting diary 🔥

June 26, 2026, Levi’s Stadium in the San Francisco Bay Area—Group D’s do-or-die showdown. Paraguay take on Australia. My call is unwavering: the Kangaroo Legion will claim the win and earn their place in the Round of 32 with their heads held high.

## 1. The Most Lethal Card: Almirón is suspended—Paraguay lose a leg

This is the most essential variable in the entire match, and also the least reversible.

Miguel Almirón—former Newcastle United man and Paraguay’s current No. 1 all-time active scorer (10 international goals)—will be absent from this do-or-die encounter due to a red card in the previous game, received before halftime against Turkey. This isn’t simply a case of “missing a starter.” It’s the spine of Paraguay’s entire attacking system being ripped out.

In the previous 1-0 win over Turkey, Almirón was the biggest threat on the right flank. His pace, dribbling, and crossing were among the few weapons Paraguay had to break down a packed defense. Now that he’s gone, head coach Alfaro can only push Gustavo Velásquez forward into a more advanced role—but Velásquez’s attacking threat is nowhere near Almirón’s level. It’s like swapping a sharp dagger for a blunt wooden club.

Against Australia’s three-man back line made up of Souttar, Burgess, and Circati, without Almirón, what will Paraguay use to pierce through?

## 2. Popovic’s “ugly philosophy” is exactly Paraguay’s nightmare

What kind of coach is Tony Popovic? In a nutshell: he doesn’t care about style—the substance is what matters.‌

Since taking over Australia in September 2024, Popovic has completely overturned the previous coach Arnold’s possession-control fantasy, turning the team into a cold, defense-to-counterattack machine. With a 3-4-2-1 formation, the two wide wing-backs shuttle rapidly up and down, the three center-backs lock down the penalty area, and in attack they give up the possession rate, prioritizing the speed of transitions.

How similar is this setup to “countering” Paraguay? Look at the numbers and you’ll know. Paraguay scored 2 goals across two group-stage matches: 1 came from Galarza’s lightning opener 65 seconds into the game, and the other came from a consolation goal in their 1-4 loss to the United States. In other words, Paraguay’s ability to score in open play is extremely limited—they rely almost entirely on counterattacks and set pieces.

And Australia just happens to be one of the best teams in the world at cutting off counterattacking passing lanes. Their midfield can suffocate the build-up, and the double pivot of O’Neill and O’Connor-Engstler covers a massive range with their running. That allows them to effectively sever the channel that takes Paraguay’s play from the back to the front. Once Enciso and Pita can’t get the ball, Paraguay’s attack is basically paralyzed.

More importantly, Australia’s set pieces are a hidden blade. The “double tower” system formed by striker Mitch Duke and attacking midfielder Jackson Irvine is highly threatening in corners and free kicks. In the opening match against Turkey, it was a set-piece assist that helped Irankunda open the scoring. But Paraguay’s aerial defending is not airtight. In the previous match against Turkey, they took the lead first with Galarza’s lightning goal—but in open play, they were shaken by Turkey’s 30 shots.

## 3. The psychological scale: Australia only need a point—Paraguay must fight desperately

This is a match where the margin for error is completely unequal.

Australia currently have 3 points and sit second in the group thanks to goal difference. They only need a draw to advance directly, safely. This means Popovic can set up a fortress from the very first minute—no risks, no pushing up, no giving the opponent space for counterattacks. Their tactical objective is extremely clear: defend, slow the game down, and outlast.

What about Paraguay? They also have 3 points, but they’re third in the group due to an inferior goal difference. They have no way out—only by going all out for a win can they leapfrog the opponent and advance directly. A draw will most likely force them to compete for “best third-placed team,” leaving their fate to other matches—that is not the script Paraguay wants.

“Must win” and “a draw is enough” may sound similar, but on the pitch the gap between these mindsets is often bigger than the gap in raw paper strength. Paraguay will be forced to push high, and the space behind their defensive line will keep growing wider and wider. And what Australia does best is waiting for you to make a mistake, then striking with decisive intent.

Looking back at history, Paraguay have remained unbeaten in the final round of group games for six consecutive World Cups, but they have never won two group-stage matches in a single tournament. This ironclad rule hangs over this South American powerhouse like a curse. They have resilience, but they lack the ability to kill a must-win match outright in one go.

## 4. The 19-year-old Irankunda: the only “game-changer” in the Kangaroos’ setup

Australia’s total squad value is only about €51.43 million. They’re at the bottom of Group D, not even a fraction of Turkey’s €500 million. But this team has something that no other opponent possesses: Nestory Irankunda.

The 19-year-old Watford forward is the only player in Australia’s squad who can change the course of a match by himself. In the opening match against Turkey, it was him—inside the box—coming under a squeeze from three defenders, yet he still opened the scoring with a perfectly placed push finish. In March’s friendly against Curaçao, he came off the bench to score twice, turning a 1-1 draw into a 5-1 rout.

Ahead of the match, Popovic had already hinted that Irankunda and Volpato could be in the starting lineup. Against Paraguay’s back line, which will be missing Almirón and has significantly reduced attacking firepower, Irankunda’s pace and technique will be Australia’s sharpest weapon.

Paraguay’s defenders turn a bit slowly—that’s a common weakness among South American teams. In the previous match against Turkey, even when down to 10 men, they held firm thanks to discipline. But if the opponent isn’t just endlessly bombarding them and instead uses speed-based wingers to take them on one-on-one, how long can that defensive line withstand it?

## 5. Big-match experience: Kangaroos are old hands—Paraguay are rookies

Australia have qualified for the World Cup finals for six straight editions, and since 2006 they have never missed a tournament. Captain Mathew Ryan has already reached the landmark of 100 national-team appearances, and veterans like Jackson Irvine and Behich are on their third World Cup. The team is already familiar to the bone with the World Cup’s rhythm, pressure, and atmosphere.

Paraguay, by contrast, are returning to the World Cup stage after 16 years away. Their two most core players, Enciso and Diego Gómez, have market values of €25 million each, but both are World Cup rookies. The psychological pressure on young players in a do-or-die match is a huge unknown. In the previous match against Turkey, they won thanks to Galarza’s lightning opener and the team’s ironclad defense—but that was a “steal one first, then defend for your life” kind of victory. With a situation that demands proactive attacking this time, can these young players hold up?

Even more worth noting: at goalkeeper, Australia has the experienced Beich in goal, while Paraguay’s goalkeeper Orlando Hill’s performance in major matches remains a question mark. In a do-or-die match, one goalkeeper mistake can decide everything.