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The Dutch Team’s Big Win Over Tunisia — Little Fortune God’s World Cup Betting Diary 🔥

In Group F, two kings are currently tied on points. Japan and the Netherlands both have 4 points. Who can advance as the group winner depends on who can find enough net goal difference in the final round. So, in the last match, with the Netherlands taking on Tunisia, I’m backing the Netherlands to secure a big win:

## 1. Tunisia is no longer the Tunisia of before

Two days ago in Monterrey, Japan tore Tunisia’s defense to shreds with a 4-0 victory. Before that, Sweden also crushed them 4-0. In those two matches, they conceded 8 goals, scored only 1, and were eliminated at the bottom of the group one round early.

Remember that iron-clad team from the Africa qualifiers—8 clean sheets and only 1 goal conceded in 10 matches? That “Carthage Eagles” that made all of Africa proud? Sorry, the intensity of the World Cup finals shattered their golden-armor iron shirt. Lamouchi’s 3-5-2 system was essentially useless against Japan and Sweden. The double pivot, Sıkhiri and Sassi, simply couldn’t withstand the continuous pressure from world-class midfielders. Center-backs Talbi and Meriah exposed their old problems—turning too slowly and struggling to recover—when faced with real pacey forwards.

‌The Tunisia of the qualifiers was a sleeping lion; the Tunisia of the World Cup is an old cat with its teeth pulled.‌

## 2. The Netherlands are creating history—and they won’t stop

Just look at how terrifying the Orange Army’s current form is: 14 matches unbeaten, 9 wins and 5 draws—while the team’s longest-ever World Cup unbeaten record continues to run. In their previous match, they slaughtered Sweden 5-1. Brobbey scored twice, and Gakpo also scored twice. The whole team had 20 shots, 13 on target, and the conversion rate is so high it’s almost absurd. Even more frightening: this is already the Netherlands’ fifth consecutive World Cup match in which they’ve scored at least 2 goals. With this kind of stable output, how many teams in the world can actually do it?

Van Dijk may no longer be the invincible iron tower he once was, but in Liverpool’s 2025/26 season he made more than 30 appearances, and his tackles and interception stats are still solid. Now he’s more like a calm battlefield commander. In front of him are Van de Ven, Timber, Van Heck, and Ake—four center-backs aged between 23 and 27, who are fast, strong, and experienced. With this back line, they can push up as a whole with confidence, locking opponents in near the midfield.

Gravenberch’s orchestration in the middle is masterful. He can receive the ball and turn, push things forward, and seamlessly connect the defense and the attack. Depay may not have made many appearances for Corinthians, but Koeman still includes him in the lineup—because this Netherlands all-time record World Cup scorer (108 appearances, 55 goals) can do things at the number 9 position that others can’t: dropping deep to collect the ball, playing with his back to goal while protecting it, and controlling the tempo. When the Netherlands needs a focal point, Depay is that steadying anchor.

‌This Netherlands side doesn’t have a top-tier superstar, but there aren’t any obvious weak spots either. The squad depth is there, the system is solid, and their firepower is fierce. That’s what makes them the most frightening team.‌

## 3. The gap in quality isn’t just one level—it’s one dimension

Numbers don’t lie. The Netherlands’ total squad value is €763 million, ranked 7th in the world. Tunisia’s total squad value is under €70 million, ranked 30th in the world. Tunisia’s valuation is less than one-tenth of the Netherlands’.

What does that mean? It means that the players sitting on the Netherlands bench are all valued higher than Tunisia’s starting core. Malen €45 million, Summerville €30 million, Brobbey €30 million, Weghorst €20 million—those are players who can only be substitutes for the Netherlands, but for Tunisia they would be absolute key starters. When the Netherlands brings on fresh legs in the second half, what will Tunisia use to hold up?

Whoscored and Sportsmole’s pre-match predictions are 0-3. This isn’t the bias of any single outlet—it’s consensus across the entire data community.

## 4. Head-to-head history is basically a record of slaughter by the Netherlands

Tunisia and the Netherlands have met 3 times in history. The record is 2 draws and 1 loss—Tunisia has never won. The most recent meeting goes back to 2009, when the two sides drew. And on the World Cup stage, the Netherlands’ record against African teams is even more overwhelming—over the last 6 matches, they have 5 wins and 1 draw; in the last 5, they have won every time by a 1-to-2-goal margin.

Tunisia’s overall record against European teams in the World Cup is 1 win, 4 draws, and 8 losses. Their only win was an upset in 2022, when they beat France. Apart from that, against European sides they’re essentially lambs to the slaughter.

And the Netherlands?‌In the history of World Cup finals, the Netherlands have never failed to get out of the group stage.‌ Never. Not once. This team is born for knockout rounds.

## 5. Tunisia is fighting for honor; the Netherlands are fighting for first place

The psychological gap in this match is even bigger than the gap in strength.

Tunisia has already been eliminated with 0 points. Their last game is just a formality—an opportunity to save face. How much fighting spirit do the players still have? How much stamina is left? Will Lamouchi rotate heavily? Everything is a big question mark.

What about the Netherlands? They need to lock down first place in the group. With 4 points and a superior goal difference, it isn’t yet completely safe. Against an opponent that has already fallen apart, the Netherlands have no reason to hold back.‌Koeman will field the strongest lineup and announce to the world with a big win: the Orange Army is here—and they’re taking this seriously.‌

More importantly, Timber, who missed the previous match, will return in this one, meaning the Netherlands’ back line will be even more complete. As for Tunisia, the only potential positive on their side—whether their attacking core Brobbey can play despite the injury—remains in doubt. But even if he does play, one person can’t save a team that has already collapsed.