The “Cognitive Gap” in Gate’s Prediction Market—Institutions and Retail Investors Think Completely Differently

Brothers, this could be the biggest information asymmetry of this World Cup.

Data analysis from Dongqiudi shows that institutions assign an implied probability of 48% to Turkey not losing, but users’ approval is only 20%, creating a -28% cognitive gap—also the biggest information asymmetry point of this round.

48% vs 20%, a difference of 28 percentage points. What does that mean? Institutions believe the probability of Turkey not losing is nearly half, but retail investors think it’s only 20%. Such a huge cognitive gap suggests there may be value in the market that’s being severely undervalued.

Why are institutions more bullish on Turkey not losing? Because institutions look at fundamentals—Turkey’s entire squad is valued at €474 million, featuring top players such as Güler, Çalhanoğlu, and Yıldız. The United States needs to rotate their starters, so key players like Pulisic, Balogun, and McKinnon won’t be playing. Even though Turkey has been eliminated, they’ll be fighting for honor with stronger fighting spirit. But what do retail investors look at? They look at surface-level things such as “the United States is the host,” “the United States won the first two games,” and “Turkey lost two straight.”

Dongqiudi’s conclusion is very clear: “In this round, the strong-team direction is showing systemic overheating, while the underdog’s undefeated side shows a clear mismatch in value.” Translated into plain language, it means—everyone is too bullish on the United States, and Turkey not losing has been severely undervalued.

If you’re a conservative player, you can consider the “Turkey not losing” direction. The odds are absolutely better than you think.

#预测世界杯土耳其VS美国