PlanB warns that Bitcoin will fall below the "53k USD" realized price! Is the historical bear market rule unbreakable?

Renowned Bitcoin price analyst PlanB issued a warning today (25th), stating that based on historical patterns from every previous bear market, Bitcoin (BTC) typically bottoms below the "Realized Price." The current Realized Price is around $53k. He raised a question about whether this downturn will hit a new low, sparking heated debate within the community.
(Previous Context: Bitcoin Drops Below $59,100, Bloodbath for Longs! 24h Liquidations Reach $988 Million, Fear Index Plunges to 12)
(Background: Bitcoin Enters "Death" Zone! BTC Breaks Below Rainbow Chart Lower Band—Is It a Perfect Buying Opportunity or an Indicator Failure?)

As Bitcoin (BTC) recently slipped below the $60k mark, market panic continues to spread, with investors searching for the ultimate bottom of this correction. In response, renowned on-chain analyst PlanB (@100trillionUSD), known for proposing the S2F (Stock-to-Flow) model, shared his latest views on the X platform today (25th), offering a relatively bearish target.

Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW Realized Price (~$53k), just like it did in EVERY previous bear market.

Right now the grey Realized Price line has been glued to the black 200-week Geometric MA line since 2023.

What do you think: new low incoming or different this time?👇 pic.twitter.com/LUFUNLblV6

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 25, 2026

Historical Pattern: The Bottom Always Breaks Below the Realized Price

In his post, PlanB clearly states: "Bitcoin will likely bottom BELOW the Realized Price (currently around $53k), just like it did in every previous bear market."

To support his view, PlanB attached a long-term logarithmic price chart for Bitcoin covering 2013 to 2027. The chart highlights two key moving averages: the "grey line" representing the Realized Price and the "black line" for the 200-week Geometric Moving Average. Additionally, the Bitcoin price dots in the chart are color-coded based on RSI (Relative Strength Index), transitioning from blue (low RSI) to red (high RSI).

PlanB emphasizes that observing recent chart movements reveals that, since 2023, the grey Realized Price line has been tightly adhering to the black 200-week Geometric Moving Average. In past historical cycles, when the market entered a deep bear market or experienced a significant correction, the price of Bitcoin invariably fell below this grey Realized Price line.

Community Debate: Down to $35k? Or Is It Different This Time?

After presenting this historical pattern, PlanB posed a question to his followers: "What do you think: new low incoming or different this time?"

The post quickly garnered over 131k views and thousands of likes, sparking intense bullish-bearish debate in the comments. Some bearish and pessimistic investors agree with PlanB, believing Bitcoin will continue to decline, calling for a bottom target between $35k and $50,000. However, another group of bullish investors firmly insists that "this time is different," arguing that with spot ETFs approved and institutional capital supporting the market, Bitcoin will not fall as deeply, and some even believe the current level around $60k is already the bottom.

With changes in the macroeconomic environment and the involvement of Wall Street capital, whether Bitcoin will follow the cyclical iron law of the retail era and touch the $53k bottom line will become the absolute focus of market attention in the coming weeks.