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#BTC下探60000美元关键关口 On June 25, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) price fell below the key psychological barrier of $60k, hitting a low of $59,023, marking its lowest level since October 2024. This is the third time Bitcoin has lost the $60k integer threshold since the start of 2026. The total crypto market cap simultaneously dropped to around $2 trillion.
This decline is the result of a triple collapse in the macro environment, capital flows, and market confidence:
🔍 Macro "Valuation Kill": Rate hike expectations reverse, non-yielding assets under pressure
This is the most core driving factor. The Fed's June dot plot shifted sharply, with nearly half of FOMC members predicting rate hikes in 2026, completely diverging from the market's prior bets on rate cuts. Chair Warsh reiterated "no rush to cut rates," and the market quickly priced in an 89% probability of two 25-basis-point rate hikes in September and December. The dollar index rose to 101.8, a 12-month high, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained above 4.50%. Bitcoin, as a non-yielding asset, faces significantly increased opportunity costs and has not demonstrated the safe-haven properties of "digital gold" during this decline, instead moving in high correlation with risk assets like the Nasdaq.
💸 Capital "Great Exodus": ETF outflows hit record, institutions "vote with their feet"
Systemic capital bleeding is underway. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced the longest net outflow streak in history, with net outflows for 6-7 consecutive weeks. Net redemptions in the past 30 days reached $6.35 billion, an all-time record. Total assets under management have fallen from about $113 billion at the start of the year to approximately $77.5 billion. The Coinbase premium index has remained negative, indicating extremely weak buying interest from U.S. investors.
🏦 Confidence "Shattered": Biggest buyer "under question," retail investors flee en masse
The biggest narrative shift comes from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). As the largest corporate buyer (holding approximately 847k BTC), its recent purchase of only 520 BTC (the smallest weekly purchase in 18 months) has dragged its stock price to its lowest since February 2024. The market is beginning to question whether its "issue bonds to buy Bitcoin" flywheel model can be sustained. Meanwhile, a large number of retail investors who entered at higher levels are deep in losses, showing very little inclination to add positions, and their attention has shifted to AI-related stocks.
⚙️ Leverage "Chain Liquidation": Liquidation wave amplifies the downtrend
High leverage in the derivatives market has become a "downward amplifier." After approximately $850 million in long crypto positions were forcibly liquidated, nearly 180k people in the crypto space were liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling $984 million. After the price broke through $60k, continued long liquidations were triggered near $59k, with passive selling accelerating the decline. Additionally, the roughly $10 billion quarterly expiration of Bitcoin options this Friday has amplified market volatility.
📉 Technicals: Bears in control, key support broken
On the daily chart, all moving averages are in a bearish alignment. The $60k level has shifted from strong support to strong resistance. Key levels: the $61,400-$61,800 area serves as short-term strong resistance; below, if $60k is confirmed lost, around $57,000 is the next on-chain concentrated liquidation zone, with the potential to even test the $50,000-$55,000 range in extreme scenarios.
⏳ Short-term focus: PCE data could be the "game changer"
Market attention is intensely focused on the U.S. May core PCE price index to be released tonight (June 25). If the data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen rate hike expectations and could push BTC down to $57,000-$55,000. If the data cools, it may offer an opportunity for a relief rally.
This decline represents a concentrated release of four negative factors: tightening macro liquidity, institutional capital withdrawal, weakened core narrative, and high-leverage liquidations. The $60,000 key support level over the past two years is now precarious. The market is in a "market without buyers," and tonight's PCE data will determine whether it is the last straw that breaks the camel's back or a lifeline for the bulls.
This downturn is the result of a triple collapse in macroeconomic conditions, capital flows, and market confidence:
🔍 Macro "Valuation Kill": Rate Hike Expectations Reverse, Non-Yielding Assets Under Pressure
This is the core driving force. The Fed's June dot plot took a sharp turn, with nearly half of FOMC members predicting rate hikes in 2026, completely diverging from the market's previously anticipated rate cuts. Chairman Warsh reiterated "no rush to cut rates," and the market quickly priced in a 89% probability of two 25-basis-point rate hikes in September and December. The US dollar index rose above 101.8 to a 12-month high, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained above 4.50%. As a non-yielding asset, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin has surged dramatically, and instead of displaying the safe-haven properties of "digital gold," it has correlated closely with risk assets like the Nasdaq in this decline.
💸 Capital "Great Withdrawal": ETFs See Record Outflows, Institutions Vote with Their Feet
Systematic bleeding in capital flow. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their longest-ever net outflow period, with net outflows for 6-7 consecutive weeks. Net redemptions within 30 days reached a record $6.35 billion. Total assets under management have dropped from about $113 billion at the start of the year to approximately $77.5 billion. The Coinbase premium index has remained negative, indicating extremely weak buying interest from US investors.
🏦 Confidence "Shattered": Biggest Buyer Questioned, Retail Investors Flee
The biggest narrative shift comes from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). As the largest corporate buyer (holding around 847k BTC), it recently purchased only 520 BTC, its smallest weekly purchase in 18 months. Its stock price fell to its lowest point since February 2024. The market is beginning to question whether its "issue bonds to buy Bitcoin" flywheel model is sustainable. Meanwhile, a large number of retail investors who bought in at high prices are in loss positions, with extremely low willingness to add positions, turning their attention to AI concept stocks.
⚙ Leverage "Cascading Liquidations": Clearing Wave Accelerates Downward Spiral
High leverage in the derivatives market acted as an "amplifier" for the decline. After approximately $850 million in long crypto positions were forcibly liquidated, nearly 180k people in the crypto space were liquidated in the last 24 hours, amounting to $984 million. Once prices broke through $60k, sustained long liquidation occurred near $59k, with passive sell orders accelerating the decline. Additionally, the quarterly expiration of approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options on Friday amplified market volatility.
📉 Technicals: Bears Dominate, Key Support Broken
Technically, the daily moving average system is all arranged in a bearish pattern. The $60k level has shifted from strong support to strong resistance. Key levels: The $61,400-$61,800 area is short-term strong resistance above. Below, if $60k is confirmed lost, $57,000 is the next on-chain dense liquidation zone, and in extreme cases, it could even test the $50,000-$55,000 range.
⏳ Short-Term Focus: PCE Data Could Be the "Deciding Factor"
Market attention is highly concentrated on tonight (June 25) when the US core PCE price index for May is released. If the data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen rate hike expectations, potentially pushing BTC down to $57,000-$55,000. If the data cools, it could offer an oversold rebound opportunity.
This decline is a concentrated release of four negative factors: macro liquidity tightening, institutional capital exit, core narrative weakening, and high-leverage liquidation. The $60,000 level, a key support over the past two years, is now precarious. The market is in a "no-buyer market," and tonight's PCE data will determine whether it is the final straw that breaks the camel's back or a lifeline for the bulls.