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#BTC下探60000美元关键关口 On June 25, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) price broke below the key psychological level of $60k, hitting a low of $59,023, the lowest since October 2024. This marks the third time Bitcoin has lost the $60k integer level since 2026. The total crypto market cap simultaneously fell back to around $2 trillion.
This decline is the result of a triple collapse in macro conditions, capital flows, and market confidence:
🔍 Macro "Valuation Squeeze": Rate hike expectations reverse, non-yielding assets under pressure
This is the most core driver. The Fed's June dot plot turned sharply, with nearly half of FOMC members forecasting rate hikes in 2026, completely diverging from the market's previous bets on rate cuts. Chair Walsh reiterated "no rush to cut rates," and the market quickly priced in an 89% probability of 25 basis point rate hikes in both September and December. The dollar index rose to 101.8, a 12-month high, and the 10-year Treasury yield remained above 4.50%. As a non-yielding asset, Bitcoin's opportunity cost of holding has surged dramatically, and during this decline it has not shown the safe-haven properties of "digital gold," but instead has fallen in high sync with risk assets like the Nasdaq.
💸 Capital "Great Retreat": ETF outflows hit record, institutions vote with their feet
Capital markets are experiencing systemic bleeding. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their longest net outflow streak ever, with net outflows for 6-7 consecutive weeks and a record net redemption of $60k in 30 days. Total AUM dropped from about $113 billion at the start of the year to around $77.5 billion. The Coinbase premium index has remained negative, indicating extremely weak buying interest from U.S. investors.
🏦 Confidence "Shattered": Largest buyer questioned, retail investors flee en masse
The biggest narrative shift comes from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). As the largest corporate buyer (holding approximately 847k BTC), it recently purchased only 520 BTC (its smallest weekly purchase in 18 months), and its stock price fell to its lowest since February 2024. The market is beginning to question whether its "debt-to-buy-bitcoin" flywheel model can sustain. Meanwhile, a large number of retail investors who entered at high prices are underwater, with extremely low willingness to add positions, shifting their attention to AI stocks.
⚙ Leverage "Chain Liquidations": Liquidation wave amplifies the downward spiral
High leverage in the derivatives market has become an "amplifier" of the decline. After a total of approximately $850 million in crypto long positions were forcibly liquidated, nearly 180k people in the crypto space were liquidated in the last 24 hours, amounting to $984 million. After the price broke below $60k, continuous long liquidations were triggered near $59k, with forced selling accelerating the decline. Additionally, the quarterly expiration of approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options this Friday also amplified market volatility.
📉 Technicals: Bears dominate, key support broken
Technically, the daily moving average system is all in a bearish alignment. $60k has changed from strong support to strong resistance. In terms of key levels, the $61,400-$61,800 area is short-term strong resistance; if $60k is confirmed lost, $57,000 is the next on-chain dense liquidation zone, and in extreme cases, BTC could even test the $50,000-$55,000 range.
⏳ Short-term Focus: PCE data could be the "game changer"
The market's short-term focus is highly concentrated on the U.S. May core PCE price index to be released tonight (June 25). If the data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen rate hike expectations and could push BTC lower toward $57,000-$55,000; if the data cools, it could bring a rebound opportunity from oversold levels.
This decline is the concentrated release of four negative factors: macro liquidity tightening, institutional capital withdrawal, core narrative weakening, and high-leverage liquidations. The two-year key support level of $60,000 is now precarious. The market is currently in a "market without buyers," and tonight's PCE data will determine whether it is the last straw that breaks the camel's back or a lifeline for the bulls.
This downturn is the result of a triple collapse in macroeconomic conditions, capital flows, and market confidence:
🔍 Macro "Valuation Kill": Rate Hike Expectations Reverse, Non-Yielding Assets Under Pressure
This is the core driving force. The Fed's June dot plot took a sharp turn, with nearly half of FOMC members predicting rate hikes in 2026, completely diverging from the market's previously anticipated rate cuts. Chairman Warsh reiterated "no rush to cut rates," and the market quickly priced in a 89% probability of two 25-basis-point rate hikes in September and December. The US dollar index rose above 101.8 to a 12-month high, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained above 4.50%. As a non-yielding asset, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin has surged dramatically, and instead of displaying the safe-haven properties of "digital gold," it has correlated closely with risk assets like the Nasdaq in this decline.
💸 Capital "Great Withdrawal": ETFs See Record Outflows, Institutions Vote with Their Feet
Systematic bleeding in capital flow. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their longest-ever net outflow period, with net outflows for 6-7 consecutive weeks. Net redemptions within 30 days reached a record $6.35 billion. Total assets under management have dropped from about $113 billion at the start of the year to approximately $77.5 billion. The Coinbase premium index has remained negative, indicating extremely weak buying interest from US investors.
🏦 Confidence "Shattered": Biggest Buyer Questioned, Retail Investors Flee
The biggest narrative shift comes from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). As the largest corporate buyer (holding around 847k BTC), it recently purchased only 520 BTC, its smallest weekly purchase in 18 months. Its stock price fell to its lowest point since February 2024. The market is beginning to question whether its "issue bonds to buy Bitcoin" flywheel model is sustainable. Meanwhile, a large number of retail investors who bought in at high prices are in loss positions, with extremely low willingness to add positions, turning their attention to AI concept stocks.
⚙ Leverage "Cascading Liquidations": Clearing Wave Accelerates Downward Spiral
High leverage in the derivatives market acted as an "amplifier" for the decline. After approximately $850 million in long crypto positions were forcibly liquidated, nearly 180k people in the crypto space were liquidated in the last 24 hours, amounting to $984 million. Once prices broke through $60k, sustained long liquidation occurred near $59k, with passive sell orders accelerating the decline. Additionally, the quarterly expiration of approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options on Friday amplified market volatility.
📉 Technicals: Bears Dominate, Key Support Broken
Technically, the daily moving average system is all arranged in a bearish pattern. The $60k level has shifted from strong support to strong resistance. Key levels: The $61,400-$61,800 area is short-term strong resistance above. Below, if $60k is confirmed lost, $57,000 is the next on-chain dense liquidation zone, and in extreme cases, it could even test the $50,000-$55,000 range.
⏳ Short-Term Focus: PCE Data Could Be the "Deciding Factor"
Market attention is highly concentrated on tonight (June 25) when the US core PCE price index for May is released. If the data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen rate hike expectations, potentially pushing BTC down to $57,000-$55,000. If the data cools, it could offer an oversold rebound opportunity.
This decline is a concentrated release of four negative factors: macro liquidity tightening, institutional capital exit, core narrative weakening, and high-leverage liquidation. The $60,000 level, a key support over the past two years, is now precarious. The market is in a "no-buyer market," and tonight's PCE data will determine whether it is the final straw that breaks the camel's back or a lifeline for the bulls.