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1
US Q1 Real GDP Annualized Final Quarter-over-Quarter:
📌 Previous: 1.6%
📌 Expected: 1.6%
📌 Actual: 2.1% (Above Expectations)
This shows the US economy is more resilient than the market expected.
Markets typically interpret this as:
✅ Lower expectations for Fed rate cuts
✅ US Treasury yields may rise
✅ Stronger US dollar
✅ Gold under pressure
⚠ Tech stocks and AI stocks face short-term pressure
However, this GDP data is just the appetizer for tonight's market moves.
What will truly determine the direction of US stocks tonight is the data released at 20:30:
• Initial jobless claims
• Core PCE price index (the Fed's most-watched inflation indicator)
If core PCE exceeds expectations again, the market will further reduce rate-cut expectations, and the probability of a pullback in the Nasdaq and tech stocks will increase significantly.
If core PCE comes in below expectations, it may offset the pressure from the strong GDP, providing an opportunity for a rebound in tech stocks.