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#BTC下探60000美元关键关口 On June 25, 2026, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) fell below the key psychological level of $60,000, hitting a low of $59,023 and setting a new low since October 2024. This marks the third time in 2026 that Bitcoin has failed to hold the $60,000 integer level. At the same time, the total market capitalization of the crypto market slid back to around $2 trillion.
This dip is the combined effect of a three-way resonance of macro conditions, liquidity, and market confidence collapsing at once:
🔍 “Valuation Killing” Macro: Rate-Hike Expectations Reverse, Pressure Builds on Non-Yielding Assets
This is the core driving force. The Fed’s June dot plot made a sharp turn; nearly half of FOMC members expect rate hikes in 2026, completely diverging from the market’s prior pricing of rate cuts. The Chair reiterated “no rush to cut rates,” and the market quickly priced the probability of two 25-basis-point rate hikes in September and December rising to 89%. The U.S. Dollar Index climbed above 101.8, a new 12-month high, while the 10-year Treasury yield held above 4.50%. As a non-yielding asset, Bitcoin’s opportunity cost of holding has surged, and in this selloff it has not shown the defensive, “digital gold” safe-haven characteristics. Instead, it has fallen in tight synchrony with risk assets such as the Nasdaq.
💸 “Great Retreat” in Capital: Record ETF Outflows, Institutions “Voting with Their Feet”
Liquidity has begun to suffer a systemic bleeding. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced the longest net outflow period in history—net outflows have continued for 6-7 consecutive weeks—and in 30 days, net redemptions reached $6.35 billion, setting a record. Total assets under management fell from about $113 billion at the start of the year to about $77.5 billion. The Coinbase premium index has remained negative, indicating extremely weak buy-side demand from U.S. investors.
🏦 “Confidence Being Pierced”: The Biggest Buyer “Under Scrutiny,” Retail Investors Exit En Masse
The loosening of the market’s biggest narrative comes from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). As the largest corporate buyer (holding about 847,000 BTC), its recent purchases were only 520 BTC (the smallest weekly buying amount in 18 months), and its stock price has fallen to the lowest level since February 2024. The market has started to question whether its “issuing debt to buy BTC” flywheel model can be sustained. At the same time, many retail investors who entered at high prices are sitting on losses, with extremely low willingness to add positions. Their attention has shifted to AI concept stocks.
⚙️ Leverage “Chain-Reaction Explosion”: Liquidation Wave Intensifies the Downward Spiral
High leverage in the derivatives market has become an “amplifier” of the decline. After a total of about $850 million in crypto long positions were forcibly liquidated, in nearly the past 24 hours, almost 180,000 people in the crypto market faced liquidations totaling $984 million. After the price broke below $60,000, continuous long liquidations were triggered around $59,000, and passive sell orders accelerated the drop. In addition, this Friday, about $10 billion worth of Bitcoin options expiring in the quarter will further amplify market volatility.
📉 Technicals: Bears in Control, Key Support Breaks
Technically, the daily moving average system is entirely aligned bearishly. $60,000 has shifted from strong support to strong resistance. For key price levels, the $61,400-$61,800 zone above is strong near-term resistance. If $60,000 is confirmed lost, the next on-chain dense liquidation area is around $57,000, and in extreme cases it could even dip into the $50,000-$55,000 range.
⏳ Short-Term Focus: Tonight’s PCE Data Could Be the “Decisive Factor”
The market’s short-term focus is highly concentrated on the U.S. May core PCE price index to be released tonight (June 25). If the data beats expectations, it will reinforce rate-hike expectations and could push BTC down to $57,000-$55,000; if the data cools, it may create an opportunity for a rebound after an oversold move.
This round of decline is a concentrated release of four negative factors: macro liquidity tightening, institutional capital pulling out, weakening of the core narrative, and high-leverage liquidation cascades. The $60,000 key support level that has held for the past two years is now in grave danger. The market is in a “no-buyer market,” and tonight’s PCE data will decide whether it becomes the final straw that crushes the camel—or the lifeline for the bulls.
This downturn is the result of a triple collapse in macroeconomic conditions, capital flows, and market confidence:
🔍 Macro "Valuation Kill": Rate Hike Expectations Reverse, Non-Yielding Assets Under Pressure
This is the core driving force. The Fed's June dot plot took a sharp turn, with nearly half of FOMC members predicting rate hikes in 2026, completely diverging from the market's previously anticipated rate cuts. Chairman Warsh reiterated "no rush to cut rates," and the market quickly priced in a 89% probability of two 25-basis-point rate hikes in September and December. The US dollar index rose above 101.8 to a 12-month high, while the 10-year Treasury yield remained above 4.50%. As a non-yielding asset, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin has surged dramatically, and instead of displaying the safe-haven properties of "digital gold," it has correlated closely with risk assets like the Nasdaq in this decline.
💸 Capital "Great Withdrawal": ETFs See Record Outflows, Institutions Vote with Their Feet
Systematic bleeding in capital flow. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their longest-ever net outflow period, with net outflows for 6-7 consecutive weeks. Net redemptions within 30 days reached a record $6.35 billion. Total assets under management have dropped from about $113 billion at the start of the year to approximately $77.5 billion. The Coinbase premium index has remained negative, indicating extremely weak buying interest from US investors.
🏦 Confidence "Shattered": Biggest Buyer Questioned, Retail Investors Flee
The biggest narrative shift comes from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy). As the largest corporate buyer (holding around 847k BTC), it recently purchased only 520 BTC, its smallest weekly purchase in 18 months. Its stock price fell to its lowest point since February 2024. The market is beginning to question whether its "issue bonds to buy Bitcoin" flywheel model is sustainable. Meanwhile, a large number of retail investors who bought in at high prices are in loss positions, with extremely low willingness to add positions, turning their attention to AI concept stocks.
⚙ Leverage "Cascading Liquidations": Clearing Wave Accelerates Downward Spiral
High leverage in the derivatives market acted as an "amplifier" for the decline. After approximately $850 million in long crypto positions were forcibly liquidated, nearly 180k people in the crypto space were liquidated in the last 24 hours, amounting to $984 million. Once prices broke through $60k, sustained long liquidation occurred near $59k, with passive sell orders accelerating the decline. Additionally, the quarterly expiration of approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options on Friday amplified market volatility.
📉 Technicals: Bears Dominate, Key Support Broken
Technically, the daily moving average system is all arranged in a bearish pattern. The $60k level has shifted from strong support to strong resistance. Key levels: The $61,400-$61,800 area is short-term strong resistance above. Below, if $60k is confirmed lost, $57,000 is the next on-chain dense liquidation zone, and in extreme cases, it could even test the $50,000-$55,000 range.
⏳ Short-Term Focus: PCE Data Could Be the "Deciding Factor"
Market attention is highly concentrated on tonight (June 25) when the US core PCE price index for May is released. If the data exceeds expectations, it will strengthen rate hike expectations, potentially pushing BTC down to $57,000-$55,000. If the data cools, it could offer an oversold rebound opportunity.
This decline is a concentrated release of four negative factors: macro liquidity tightening, institutional capital exit, core narrative weakening, and high-leverage liquidation. The $60,000 level, a key support over the past two years, is now precarious. The market is in a "no-buyer market," and tonight's PCE data will determine whether it is the final straw that breaks the camel's back or a lifeline for the bulls.