🔥 Tonight at 8:30 PM, the Fed's favorite PCE inflation data is coming! 🔥

Overall PCE is expected at 4.1% YoY, core PCE at 3.4% YoY. If in line with expectations, it would be the highest since 2023.

The June dot plot has already shifted from "one rate cut this year" to "one rate hike this year," with a 34% probability of a July hike.

If this data surprises to the upside again, rate hike expectations will be fully priced in, and risk assets will all shake.

Now look at $BTC over here—yesterday it hit a low near 59,100, a 21-month low, but the 59K level has held several times this month, and it has bounced back above 61K. However, the RSI on the 6-hour chart is only 29.62, which is indeed oversold.

Glassnode data shows that the number of BTC in loss has reached 10.83 million, an all-time high. BlackRock just deposited 2,700 BTC (about $168 million) into Coinbase yesterday. Institutional moves at this level are worth pondering.

⚠️ Two scenarios tonight:

PCE beats expectations → rate hike expectations heat up → BTC may test 57K or even 55K;

PCE below expectations → rate cut expectations recover → oversold bounce targets 65K.

The key is whether 59K can hold.

👉 My view: Don't move before the data, wait for the outcome.

Whether 60K can hold steady is decided tonight. Is this wave a "golden pit" or a "continuation pattern"? The answer comes at 8:30 PM tonight.

Do you think PCE will beat or miss expectations? Can BTC hold 60K tonight? Share your judgment in the comments! 👇