Nearly 11 million Bitcoins are in a loss state, while the number of Bitcoins controlled by long-term holders has set a historical record of 14.8 million.

The simultaneous appearance of these two numbers is not a coincidence, but direct evidence that the holder structure is splitting.
The loss supply has hit a new high, indicating that a large number of positions bought at high prices are trapped. However, long-term holders are increasing their positions – the number of Bitcoins they hold has reached a historical high, meaning true believers have not left the market but are instead accumulating positions during the decline.
This split means that the market is at a critical game stage: short-term panic sellers and long-term allocators are betting against each other within the same price range. Historically, such a structure often appears in bottom areas, but the bottom is never determined by a single signal.
The risk is: if the loss supply continues to expand while prices fail to stabilize, the cost basis of long-term holders may also be broken, triggering deeper liquidations. Currently, market sentiment is fragile, and any macro disturbance could amplify this structural divergence.
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