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The Orange Army Dominates Tunisia — Little Money God’s World Cup Betting Diary 🔥

Group F currently has the two kings tied at the top: Japan and the Netherlands are both on 4 points. Who can advance as the group winner depends on who can register enough goal difference in the final round. So in the last match, with the Netherlands facing Tunisia, I’m backing the Netherlands to deliver a big win:

1. Tunisia is no longer the Tunisia it used to be

Two days ago in Monterrey, Japan tore Tunisia’s back line to pieces, winning 4-0. And before that, Sweden also crushed them 4-0. In those two matches, they conceded 8 goals and scored only 1—meaning they were eliminated at the bottom of the group one round early.

Remember that iron-willed side in the African qualifiers that kept 8 clean sheets and conceded just 1 goal in 10 matches—the “Carthage Eagles” that made the whole of Africa proud? Sorry, the intensity of the World Cup finals ripped their gold-plated iron armor apart. Lamouchi’s 3-5-2 system was essentially useless against Japan and Sweden. The double pivot—Skhiri and Sassi—couldn’t handle the sustained pressure from world-class midfielders at all. And center-backs Talbi and Meriah’s long-standing problems were exposed when facing genuinely pacey forwards: turning is slow, and tracking back is difficult.

‌In the qualifiers, Tunisia was a sleeping lion; in the World Cup, Tunisia is an old cat with its teeth pulled.‌

2. The Netherlands are making history—and they can’t stop

Just look at how terrifying the Orange Legion’s current form is—14 games unbeaten, 9 wins and 5 draws, and their franchise record for the longest World Cup unbeaten run is still going strong.‌ In the previous match, they thrashed Sweden 5-1: Brobbey scored twice, and Gakpo also scored twice. The whole team fired 20 shots with 13 on target, and the conversion rate was so high it’s almost unbelievable. Even more frightening is that this is already the Netherlands’ fifth consecutive World Cup match in which they’ve scored at least 2 goals. With this kind of steady output, how many teams worldwide can actually do that?

Van Dijk may no longer be the invincible tower he was in his prime, but in Liverpool’s 2025/26 season he still made more than 30 appearances, and his tackle and interception numbers are still there. Nowadays, he’s more like a calm war-room commander. In front of him are Van de Ven, Timber, Van Hekke, and Aké—four center-backs aged between 23 and 27, quick, strong, and experienced. With this defense, you can push the whole line forward with confidence and lock the opponent down near midfield.

Gravenberch’s in-game management in the middle of the park is truly masterful—he can receive and turn, push the play forward, and seamlessly connect defense with attack. Depay may not have played much for Corinthians, but Koeman still included him in the lineup—because this Netherlands all-time record World Cup scorer (108 appearances, 55 goals) can do things others can’t from the No. 9 role: dropping deep to receive the ball, protecting it with his back, and setting the tempo. When the Netherlands need a fulcrum, Depay is that reliable anchor.

‌This Netherlands side has no top-tier superstars, but there are no obvious weaknesses either. Squad depth is there, the system is stable, and the firepower is ruthless. That’s what makes them the most terrifying team.‌

3. The gap in strength isn’t “one level”—it’s “a different dimension”

Numbers don’t lie. The Netherlands’ total squad value is €763 million, ranked 7th in the world; Tunisia’s total squad value is less than €70 million, ranked 30th.‌ Tunisia’s value is less than one-tenth of the Netherlands’.‌

So what does that mean? It means the players sitting on the Netherlands’ bench have market values higher than Tunisia’s starting core. Malen (€45m), Summerville (€30m), Brobbey (€30m), Weghorst (€20m)—those who can only be substitutes for the Netherlands would all be absolute key players for Tunisia. When the Netherlands bring on fresh legs in the second half, what can Tunisia possibly use to hold them off?

Whoscored and Sportsmole’s pre-match predictions are 0-3. This isn’t the bias of any one outlet—it’s a consensus across the entire data community.

4. The history of head-to-heads is basically a Netherlands massacre story

Tunisia and the Netherlands have met 3 times in history: the record stands at 2 draws and 1 loss for Tunisia—no wins at all. The most recent meeting dates back to 2009, when the two sides drew. And at World Cup venues, the Netherlands’ record against African teams is even more overwhelming—over the last 6 matches they’ve won 5 and drawn 1, and in the most recent 5 they won all by a margin of 1 to 2 goals.‌

Tunisia’s overall World Cup record against European teams is 1 win, 4 draws, and 8 losses. Their only victory was a shocking upset of France in 2022. Beyond that, they’re practically lambs to the slaughter against European opposition.

And the Netherlands?‌ In the World Cup finals in history, the Netherlands have never stopped at the group stage.‌ Never. Not once. This team is built for the knockout rounds.

5. Tunisia is a battle for honor; the Netherlands is a battle for top spot

The mental gap in this match is even bigger than the gap in strength.

Tunisia already have 0 points and are out. Their final match is just a formality—mainly to get through it and preserve some dignity. How much fighting spirit is left in the players? How much energy do they still have? Will Lamouchi rotate heavily? Everything is a question mark.

What about the Netherlands? They need to secure first place in the group. With 4 points in hand and a goal difference advantage, it still isn’t entirely safe. Against an opponent that’s already collapsed, the Netherlands have no reason to go easy.‌ Koeman will put out his strongest lineup, using a big win to declare to the world: the Orange Legion is here—and they’re serious.‌

More importantly, Timber, who missed the last match, will return in this one, which means the Netherlands’ back line will be even more complete. On Tunisia’s side, the only potential positive is whether their attacking core Brobbey can play despite injury—but even if he is able to take the field, one person still can’t save a team that has already collapsed.