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Japan or Defeat the Nordic Vikings -- Little Wealth God's World Cup Betting Diary 🔥

Tomorrow morning, Japan will face Sweden at the Monterrey Stadium. Just a few days ago on June 20, Japan swept Tunisia 4-0 at the Monterrey Stadium, showing suffocating dominance. Possession reached 63%, Ayase Ueda scored a brace, Daichi Kamada and Junya Ito each scored a goal, and Ko Itakura delivered a precise through ball—the entire team was like a finely tuned war machine. Tunisia had only 1 shot with none on target, 3 corner kicks, zero threat. Currently, Japan and the Netherlands are tied for first place in the group with 4 points. A draw in the final round will guarantee advancement, but perhaps their ambitions go beyond that. Little Wealth God believes Japan will defeat Sweden:

1. Japan just massacred Tunisia 4-0, riding high on momentum

Just two days ago on June 20, Japan swept Tunisia 4-0 at the Monterrey Stadium, showing suffocating dominance. Possession reached 63%, Ayase Ueda scored a brace, Daichi Kamada and Junya Ito each scored a goal, and Ko Itakura delivered a precise through ball—the entire team was like a finely tuned war machine. Tunisia had only 1 shot with none on target, 3 corner kicks, zero threat. This Japanese team is not here to "participate" in the World Cup; they are here to "conquer."

And Sweden? In their first match against Tunisia, although they led 2-1 at halftime, they only had 5 shots and 3 shots on target in the entire match, winning with difficulty. Comparing the two, it's clear who is in hotter form.

2. Sweden is a team that "sneaked into the World Cup by luck"

This statement sounds harsh, but the data doesn't lie. Sweden's record in European qualifiers Group B is: 6 matches, 2 draws, 4 losses, not a single win, scored 4 goals, conceded 12, finished bottom of the group. You read that right—a team with two lethal strikers like Isak and Gyokeres actually won zero matches in the World Cup qualifiers. They finally secured a World Cup ticket by relying on the "wild card" spot as the C-League group winner in the Nations League, plus the luck of winning 3-1 against Ukraine and a dramatic 3-2 win over Poland in the playoffs.

Simply put, Sweden is one of the most overrated teams in this World Cup. Their paper value is intimidating, but actual combat effectiveness is questionable.

3. Sweden's two star players have both "gone silent"

Isak, the striker Liverpool bought for €100 million, had a slow start at Liverpool this season, scoring only 1 goal in 8 matches, and missed games repeatedly due to groin injuries. In the World Cup qualifiers, he had 0 goals and 0 assists in 4 matches, and he himself admitted, "It's terrible, embarrassing." Gyokeres showed some highlights at Arsenal, but far from consistent output. The two never formed effective chemistry in the qualifiers, and under new coach Potter's system, they are even more isolated.

More fatally, Sweden's only core player capable of deadly passes, Kulusevski, was left out due to injury. Without him, Sweden's attack is like a knife without a blade—frightening to look at but unable to cut anything.

4. Japan's possession-based play is naturally a counter to Sweden

This is the core logic at the tactical level. What is the tradition of Swedish football? Long balls, aerial bombardment, physical confrontation.  But what Japan excels at is precisely using short passes, penetration, and ground coordination to dismantle this rough style. At the 2022 Qatar World Cup, Japan used this approach to come from behind and beat Germany 2-1 and Spain 2-1. Sweden's tactical style is exactly the same as Germany and Spain back then—tall, strong, reliant on physique, but slow to turn and poor with the ball at their feet. Facing Japan's flexible passing combinations and the wing breakthroughs of Kaoru Mitoma and Takefusa Kubo, Sweden's center-backs like Lindelöf will be toyed with.

The data also confirms this: Japan averages 58.2% possession, Sweden only 43.5%; Japan averages 14.3 shots per game, Sweden only 11.1. Who controls the game is self-evident.

5. Japan's squad depth is far beyond Sweden's reach

The 2026 Japanese team has completed a transformation to being "fully Europeanized." 23 players are active in European leagues, only 3 remain in the J-League, and the starting lineup has 88% of players abroad. Takefusa Kubo, Ritsu Doan, Wataru Endo, Ko Itakura, Hiroki Ito, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Kaoru Mitoma, Junya Ito, Keito Nakamura, Ayase Ueda... This lineup is no less than a second-tier European powerhouse. Moreover, Japan also has emerging forces like Keisuke Goto, Yuto Suzuki, and Kento Shiokawa ready at any time. The physical advantage in the second half will be the last straw that breaks Sweden's back.

In contrast, Sweden has a significant gap in strength between starters and substitutes. Once the starting players' stamina declines, they simply don't have enough backup to maintain intensity. Sweden's average age is relatively high, while Japan is in its golden age—high pressing after the 70th minute will be Japan's lethal weapon.

6. Psychological battle: Japan is no longer the same old team

The experience of defeating Germany and Spain four years ago has injected an unshakable belief into this Japanese team— We are not afraid of any European team.  Hajime Moriyasu has been coaching for six years, honing this team into a tournament machine. They have advanced from the group stage in two consecutive World Cups, and in the last edition, they drew with Croatia within 90 minutes and lost on penalties. They have proven that they can hold their own in knockout-stage contests.

And Sweden? A team that entered the World Cup through a wild card and playoff luck, facing a Japanese team that just swept an opponent 4-0 and has the psychological foundation of defeating Germany and Spain—who is more confident? The answer is self-evident.