Today's US Stock Recommendation | #美光 AI Starts Grabbing Memory

Micron's Q3 revenue was $41.46 billion, up 346% year-over-year; adjusted gross margin was 84.9%, and next quarter is expected to rise to about 86%. AI servers are lacking not only GPUs; HBM, DRAM, and high-speed storage are also starting to bottleneck production capacity.

What really changes the company's value is 16 long-term customer agreements.

Customers commit to purchasing about 20% of DRAM and one-third of NAND, with a minimum contract value of approximately $100 billion. Memory previously depended mainly on spot price fluctuations; now large customers are starting to lock in supply ahead of time, making Micron's revenue stability much higher.

Technology is also delivering. HBM4 has already shipped in volume for NVIDIA's Vera Rubin platform, and HBM4E is expected to enter mass production in 2027; PCIe Gen6 SSDs and 245TB enterprise SSDs have also shipped. Micron is transitioning from a traditional cyclical stock to a core component of AI data centers.

The risks are also clear: a 84.9% gross margin is hard to maintain forever; Samsung and SK Hynix will also expand production; and Micron itself still needs to invest huge sums to build factories. The current stock price has already priced in supply shortages and sustained growth in AI capex; if earnings show even a slight slowdown, volatility will not be small.

My advice is that holding is fine, but don't chase the post-earnings gap up for new positions.

Going forward, we can watch these three items: HBM shipments, memory prices, and long-term contract fulfillment. Micron is strong, but entry points still need to wait.