#预测世界杯土耳其VS美国 Looking at the odds on Polymarket, the United States win 52%, Turkey win 26%, and the draw is 23%. But I think the market may be underestimating the likelihood of Turkey getting points.

The U.S. team has won both matches and has already secured first place in Group D. Among the regular starters, Chris Richards, Anthony Robinson, Tyler Adams, and Folarin Balogun each have a yellow card, and Pochettino has confirmed that he will not risk starting them. Pulisic has returned from injury, but he has only just recovered from a calf injury, so his form and expected playing time remain unknown.

Now look at Turkey—two matches, two losses, 62 shots and 0 goals; the data is indeed ugly. But their average expected goals (xG) per game is as high as 3.5, ranking 11th among all teams. The attacking lineup—Güler, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and İrfan Can Kahveci—has real firepower; scoring is just a matter of luck.

In their five head-to-head meetings, each side has recorded 2 wins and 1 draw, completely evenly matched. Last year, Turkey also beat the United States 2-1 in a friendly. A Turkey team fighting for honor, facing a heavily rotated U.S. side—the unbeaten direction, meaning Turkey win or draw—I believe has been undervalued.