#预测世界杯土耳其VS美国 On Polymarket, the probability of a draw is only 23%, but in this “nothing-burger” match, the likelihood of a draw is seriously being underestimated.

Why is a draw worth betting on?

First, four of the USA’s key starters are suspended with yellow cards and can’t start, and Pulisic has just returned from injury—this isn’t the full-strength USA.

Second, Turkey had 62 shots but scored 0 goals—this is a typical slump in form rather than a lack of ability. Against a rotated US back line, the chances of scoring are actually higher. Turkey’s entire squad is valued at €470 million and features top midfielders like Çalhanoğlu and Güler, so they shouldn’t be shut out in three matches.

Third, the historical data is interesting: the two teams have faced each other 5 times, with each side winning 2 and drawing 1. The most recent meeting saw Turkey win 2-1. In the past 20 World Cup matches against European teams, the USA has managed only 1 win (7 draws, 12 losses).

Trading strategy: With draw odds at 4.35, it’s extremely cost-effective to place a small bet on the draw plus a supplemental bet that Turkey won’t lose. Neither side is under must-win pressure in this game, so the probability of a 1-1 draw is far higher than the market’s expected 23%.

My prediction: Turkey 1-1 USA 🤝