SK Hynix is coming to Nasdaq. It will raise approximately $29.4 billion and list on July 10. I hold memory positions, so I can't just take this as news.

It will issue ADRs, and the capital raised will mostly be poured into capacity: the new Yongin fab, the Cheongju packaging plant, and ASML's EUV lithography machines. It's all about expanding production. But don't rush to interpret expansion as a bearish factor.

Memory isn't like paying money today and shipping tomorrow. Its prospectus clearly states that this batch of new capacity will not start being released until 2027 at the earliest.

So in the short term, this won't solve the memory shortage. AI servers are still fighting for HBM, DRAM prices remain tight, and Micron's earnings raised guidance. The logic is the same: right now, it's a shortage.

What really needs to be watched is two years later. SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron — the three companies hold the lifeline of global HBM and DRAM. Now, while complaining about shortages, they are frantically raising funds, building factories, and buying equipment.

This shows that today's high boom is already summoning tomorrow's supply. This is the cruelest part of cyclical stocks. When prices rise, everyone believes "this time is different." When capacity comes online, they realize every cycle looks the same.

There's another layer: once SK Hynix lists on Nasdaq, the market will compare it side by side with Micron.

Its current valuation is lower than Micron's. If the market revalues it upward through this listing, the anchor of the entire memory sector may need to be recalibrated. This is not necessarily bad for my positions, but it's not a surefire good thing either.

My current judgment is:

Short term: look at whether supply is tight.

Medium term: see how long prices can hold.

Long term: watch when that batch of 2027 capacity will flip the cycle.