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Let's calculate a time account for Strategy. This account was calculated by CryptoQuant. I'll just copy the numbers over as-is, you see for yourself.
The starting point is "7+ years". This is the cash in its account, originally enough to cover the preferred stock dividends for that many years. Sounds safe.
First cut: on cash. To continue buying coins, it has burned through its fiat reserves this year, which are 38% less than at the beginning of the year; of that, just buying back the 2029 convertible bonds used up 1.5 billion in cash.
Second cut: on liabilities. To continue buying, it issued STRC perpetual preferred stock, directly raising the annual preferred dividend from 300 million to 1.2 billion. That's an extra 900 million per year. Two cuts later, that "7+ years" safety cushion has shrunk to 14 months.
CryptoQuant's advice is straightforward: stop buying coins first, stack cash back to 2.8 billion, enough to pay two years of dividends before anything else. The accounting is done, and here are my rules. I am not accusing Strategy of financial fraud; these numbers are estimated by a third-party institution based on public information, and the conclusions may change with its subsequent financing.
I'm just laying out this shortened timeline; let the data define the character. You can question it, no labels attached. The market's reaction, however, was unambiguous. $MSTR fell another 7.3% that day to $96, a two-and-a-half-year low, losing over 75% in a year. STRC, which Saylor's team sold to conservative investors as a "high-interest savings account", fell below $82, an all-time low.
A flywheel that borrows money to buy coins and then issues new shares to pay interest - when it spins fast, everyone calls it a genius. Now the flywheel is still spinning, but the cash underfoot has gone from a seven-year buffer to a fourteen-month countdown.
As for the rest, it depends on how long that number can hold out.