1. Macro Background (Determines Medium-Term Trends)

1. Fed Hawkish Expectations Strike Again (Core Bearish)
The June FOMC meeting dot plot significantly raised the terminal rate, with the market pricing a 77% probability of another rate hike within 2026, pushing rate cut expectations directly to 2027.
U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened, with the high-interest-rate environment continuing to suppress risk asset valuations. Bitcoin and Ethereum, as high-leverage growth assets, face far greater pressure than gold.

2. Institutional Funds Continue to Flow Out, New Inflows Dried Up
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, the longest redemption cycle since listing. Institutions are passively reducing positions and fleeing to safety, leaving only existing capital battling within the market.

3. Risk Appetite Weakens Across the Board
U.S. tech stocks pulled back, the VIX rose, the crypto market followed suit with cascading declines, concentrated liquidations of leveraged contracts amplified volatility, and short-term selling pressure was magnified.

4. ETH Fundamentals Independent Bearish
The ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken (underperforming relative to Bitcoin), on-chain activity is sluggish, and the Q3 Glamsterdam upgrade currently has no short-term speculative capital expectations, making it less resilient.