Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. May core PCE price index will be released. This is the core inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and the key basis for measuring the 2% inflation target, directly determining the future direction of interest rates.

Recently, the market has been experiencing continuous sharp declines. In addition to capital risk aversion, the main reason is that the market has already priced in rising inflation and increasing rate hikes in advance. Everything is waiting for the release of this PCE data.

Last month's core PCE annual rate was 3.3%. The market expects 3.4% this time, while the Cleveland Fed predicts it will remain at 3.3%. There are three scenarios to interpret:

1. Data ≤ 3.3%: Inflation has not rebounded further, and expectations of aggressive rate hikes cool down. Combined with the easing of U.S.-Iran tensions, oil price increases are limited, and risk market sentiment will recover.

2. Data = 3.4%: Inflation rises slightly but is fully in line with market expectations. As geopolitical conflicts subside and oil prices fall, the market will gradually ease the pessimistic sentiment about multiple rate hikes.

3. Data > 3.4%: The rise in oil prices has already transmitted to overall inflation, exceeding market expectations. Even if the Fed delays rate hikes, panic sentiment will continue to spread, and stocks, crypto markets, and precious metals will remain under pressure.

Summary: If the value is below 3.4%, the market will warm up; if it equals 3.4%, pessimistic sentiment will not worsen; once it exceeds 3.4%, risk-off selling will continue. #0成本拿2股SK海力士