6.25 Market Outlook

The bearish trend on Thursday hasn't changed. This rebound is just a short-term recovery after a sharp drop, and the waterfall decline is far from over.

After the previous dip to the 59063 low, driven by positive earnings from Micron, the market saw a 2200-point rebound, reaching a high of 61700. However, the impact of a single company's earnings report is limited and cannot reverse the overall weakness. The earlier gains in the AI sector had already priced in positive news in advance, only slightly easing market panic. Various macro-level negative factors are still converging:

1. Tariff news continues to disrupt market risk appetite.
2. Tonight's PCE inflation data will influence Fed policy expectations, with market risk aversion sentiment strong.
3. Mt. Gox's 140k BTC will be distributed on June 30, with selling pressure building up, making it the biggest on-chain bearish risk this week.
4. The hawkish Fed expectations continue to heat up, coupled with end-of-month capital repatriation in the market.
5. The Japanese and Korean stock markets continue to weaken, making it difficult for global risk assets to escape the pressure.

From the chart perspective, the 59000 support has been repeatedly tested since the beginning of the year. The bullish momentum in each rebound has been consistently weakening. The space for this rebound has largely been realized, and the 61900-62800 range is stacked with heavy trapped selling pressure, making sustained breakthroughs difficult. The medium-term downside space has already opened. The first target for this bearish move is around 55000, followed by 53000 after a breakdown, and in extreme cases, the 5000 level could be tested.

In terms of operations

Bitcoin's afternoon rebound to the 61900-62600 range allows for layered short positions. Hold positions for swings, add positions on bounces to go with the trend short. Short-term target 55000, ultimate target 4000. Strictly avoid blindly bottom-fishing, and manage risk with light positions. $BTC #美国VS土耳其