四年週期神話沒死！21Shares喊話：比特幣年底就會重返10萬鎂

21Shares report points out that although Bitcoin has recently corrected 50% from its highs, the entry of institutional and long-term capital has made the current cycle's volatility narrower than before, and the four-year cycle still holds reference value.

21Shares: The Four-Year Cycle Still Holds Reference Value

Bitcoin recently broke below $60k, sparking renewed market discussion on whether the four-year cycle has become invalid. In its latest mid-term report "State of Crypto," crypto asset management firm 21Shares stated that the current price trend is still highly similar to cycles after previous halvings, and there is no evidence yet to overturn the four-year cycle.

21Shares stated that after the launch of spot ETFs, significant inflow of institutional funds, and companies incorporating Bitcoin into their asset allocations, the market may gradually break away from the past cycle model centered on halvings.

However, after reviewing the market performance in the first half of 2026, the research team believes that Bitcoin still exhibits the typical rhythm of reaching new highs after a halving, followed by a correction and consolidation phase. Only the increased market maturity has made price volatility significantly narrower compared to previous cycles.

This Correction Still Below Historical Bear Market Declines

The report states that since Bitcoin reached an all-time high of approximately $126k in October 2025, it has accumulated a decline of about 50%. Although market sentiment has clearly weakened, the current correction is still relatively limited compared to past bear markets.

Source: CoinGecko Bitcoin has accumulated a decline of about 50% since reaching an all-time high of approximately $126k in October 2025.

During the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin fell about 84% from its peak; the 2022 bear market decline was also close to 77%. In comparison, although the current price has broken through several key supports, it remains above the historical average correction range.

21Shares believes that the change in market structure is an important reason for the relatively mild correction. After the introduction of spot ETFs, corporate asset allocations, and more long-term capital entering the market, the investor composition has changed compared to the past, also reducing the probability of panic selling.

On-Chain Data Shows Long-Term Capital Has Not Withdrawn

In addition to price trends, 21Shares also cites multiple on-chain data points to assess market conditions. The report points out that the current Bitcoin price is still higher than the average cost basis of all investors, approximately around $54k. In past bear markets, Bitcoin often broke below the overall cost basis for extended periods, causing a large number of investors to be in loss and triggering larger selling pressure. The market has not yet experienced a similar situation, indicating that the overall market still retains a certain level of support capacity.

On the other hand, although the assets under management of global cryptocurrency ETPs have declined about 15% from the beginning of the year due to the price correction, the number of Bitcoins held by related products remains at approximately 1.25 million, only about 8% below the all-time high. The research team believes that although institutional investors have reduced some positions, overall funds have not experienced large-scale outflows.

Still Bullish on a Return to $100k by Year-End

Based on the current market structure and on-chain data, 21Shares maintains its base case prediction that Bitcoin will recover to $100k by the end of the year. However, the research team believes that the market still needs to go through a period of consolidation in the short term, and prices are unlikely to quickly return to all-time highs.

The report points out that the factors influencing market trends are now more diverse than in the past, including spot ETF flows, global liquidity, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, the U.S. dollar trend, and geopolitical risks, all of which could affect Bitcoin's short-term performance. Therefore, even though the long-term trend remains positive, short-term volatility may persist.

Recently, the market has also begun to re-discuss whether the four-year cycle still has predictive power. Some analysts believe that institutional funds have gradually made Bitcoin a mature asset, and prices will be more influenced by macroeconomic factors; other analysts believe that the supply changes brought by halvings still exist, so the four-year cycle can still serve as an important reference framework.

Market Cycles Gradually Evolve, Not Completely Change

21Shares believes that the biggest change in the Bitcoin market comes from the sources of funds and investor structure. Spot ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, pension funds, and various crypto asset ETPs continue to increase Bitcoin allocations, gradually shifting the market from retail-driven to joint participation by institutions and long-term capital.

This change has narrowed the magnitude of market corrections compared to the past and has also begun to adjust the rhythm of bull and bear cycles. The four-year cycle can still provide a direction for observation, but the market has gradually incorporated more influencing factors, including global liquidity, monetary policy, institutional allocation strategies, and regulatory policies.

As the market continues to mature, Bitcoin's future price cycles may exhibit characteristics of smaller corrections and longer consolidation periods. The four-year cycle remains an important tool for market analysis, but it is no longer the only factor affecting price trends.