The mainstream high-probability expectation in the market is that over 40 vessels will cross in a single month.

Betting on the probability of 40 or more vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30 is as high as 80%, with odds of only 1.25x; the blue curve representing this bracket remains in the high range throughout the entire period, surging sharply at the end of the month, as capital widely believes that the baseline volume of vessels passing through the strait this month can easily exceed 40.