The mainstream high-probability expectation in the market is that the number of vessels crossing in a single month will reach 40 or more.

Bets place an 80% probability on 40 or more vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, with odds of only 1.25x; the blue curve representing this bracket remains in a high range throughout the entire period, surging sharply at the end of the month, with funds generally believing that the baseline volume of ships passing through the strait this month can easily exceed 40.