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June 25th Thoughts:
On the fundamental side, as Trump stated that Iran had informed the U.S. that it had not collected tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, prices briefly surged upward.
Subsequently, when it was stated that if Iran charges tolls on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations would be terminated, prices fell again.
Later, the Defense Minister said that even if the U.S. makes a demand, we will not withdraw from southern Lebanon; as U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that the U.S. technical team will return to negotiations with Iran on the 30th of this month, prices accelerated their decline.
On the technical side: After breaking below 1610 yesterday, prices quickly dropped to the long-term platform strong support level of 1550 before rebounding.
Currently, the market has returned to the downward oscillating range since the high of 1849. The short-term bullish-bearish demarcation point has become 1646, with short-term support at 1604.
In today's operations, attention should be paid to the short-term choice between 1646 and 1604 before determining the first condition for entering the market in the later period. Bears have not yet accumulated enough momentum, while bulls need to break above 1646 and stabilize on a pullback. Therefore, wait and see for now, awaiting further guidance from the market.