10.5 billion options expire tomorrow, 86% out of the money. Miners are selling, whales are catching.



It's always the same script at the bottom – miners are forced to sell due to cash flow pressure, and whales are waiting below to catch the chips.

JPMorgan estimates the average mining cost at around $78,000, Bitcoin is now near $61,000, and the inversion has lasted for five months.

Listed mining companies sold over 32,000 BTC in Q1, exceeding the total for the entire year of 2025. On the other hand, holders controlling at least 0.1% of the total Bitcoin supply added 7,130 BTC just yesterday. One is selling, the other is buying.

Miner capitulation usually signals a bottom zone, but there will be no directional move before expiry. Market makers' hedging activity will lock the price in the 58000-62000 range.

After expiry, if it holds above 62000, a short squeeze could trigger a rapid bounce. If it breaks below 58000, then you’ll have to wait for a lower level to consider entering. I won’t place a bet at this level in advance; I’ll wait for the direction to emerge tomorrow and follow.
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MirrorBallReflection
· 2h ago
Cost price 78000, selling at 61000. Miners are really miserable, but historical patterns are clear. After settlement, if it stabilizes above 62000, then consider going long.
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GateUser-04e4dac2
· 2h ago
86% out-of-the-money + market maker hedging, this price is welded solid, betting in advance is just giving away money.
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LeverageWhisperer
· 2h ago
A whale accumulated 7,130 coins in one day—this accumulation speed… The bottom area is most likely in place, but I really don’t dare to move before settlement.
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PerpMoodSwing
· 2h ago
Miner capitulation is definitely an old playbook, but this time the five-month backwardation is indeed pretty unusual—let’s wait until tomorrow’s settlement is done, and then we’ll move depending on which way it goes.
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