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10.5 billion options expire tomorrow, 86% out of the money. Miners are selling, whales are catching.
It's always the same script at the bottom – miners are forced to sell due to cash flow pressure, and whales are waiting below to catch the chips.
JPMorgan estimates the average mining cost at around $78,000, Bitcoin is now near $61,000, and the inversion has lasted for five months.
Listed mining companies sold over 32,000 BTC in Q1, exceeding the total for the entire year of 2025. On the other hand, holders controlling at least 0.1% of the total Bitcoin supply added 7,130 BTC just yesterday. One is selling, the other is buying.
Miner capitulation usually signals a bottom zone, but there will be no directional move before expiry. Market makers' hedging activity will lock the price in the 58000-62000 range.
After expiry, if it holds above 62000, a short squeeze could trigger a rapid bounce. If it breaks below 58000, then you’ll have to wait for a lower level to consider entering. I won’t place a bet at this level in advance; I’ll wait for the direction to emerge tomorrow and follow.