Bitcoin is plummeting without stopping! In-depth analysis on June 25: Under the bearish onslaught, is the rebound just a "brief rally before death"?

Bitcoin has cascaded from its mid-May high of $80k to near the $60k mark, evaporating over 25% of its market value in just a month and a half. ETF capital continues to flow out, market sentiment has plunged into the "extreme fear" zone, and technical formations have completely broken down — this decline is by no means accidental. This article thoroughly deconstructs the capital logic and technical signals behind the crash, clearing the fog for investors.

I. The Bloodbath: From $80k to $60k, What Happened to Bitcoin?

Rewind to mid-May 2026, Bitcoin was still riding high above $80k. However, just a month and a half later, the price has fallen to around $60k, hitting an intraday low of $60,673 on June 25, with a single-day drop of over 3%.

This is not a simple correction, but a premeditated "strangulation."

Looking back at the timeline of this decline, we can clearly see three main forces acting simultaneously:

First, institutional capital is "voting with their feet." The capital flow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs is the best window to observe the attitude of smart money. From June 15 to 18, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $227 million. The situation was even more severe in early June — on June 2 alone, the net outflow reached $519 million. Even market leaders like BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC saw rare capital outflows. Remember, over the past few months, the continuous net inflow of ETFs was the core driving force supporting Bitcoin's repeated record highs. Now that this "engine" has stalled or even reversed, the market's foundation is being shaken.

Second, market sentiment has fallen into the "extreme fear" zone. The Fear and Greed Index once dropped to 12 points in early June, remaining in the "extreme fear" state for two consecutive days. This means market panic has reached a peak in months, with investors generally pessimistic and heavy selling pressure. When market sentiment turns extreme, it is often accompanied by irrational selling behavior, further exacerbating the price decline.

Third, uncertainty at the macroeconomic level continues to ferment. Although the Federal Reserve lifted the daily $500 billion limit on the Standing Repo Facility (SRP) at the end of 2025, allowing banks to borrow unlimited amounts from the Fed using Treasury bonds as collateral, which once injected substantial liquidity into the market, by 2026, repeated inflation data and uncertainty about the Fed's policy path have kept risk assets under a shadow. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, is being reassessed for its allocation value, while Bitcoin's narrative as "digital gold" appears increasingly fragile in the face of a real storm.

II. Technical Anatomy: Every Rebound in a Bearish Pattern Is a "Trap"

Turning to the chart, let's carefully dissect the current technical structure.

All three moving averages of the Alligator indicator are opening and diverging downward, with the price running entirely along the lower edge of the envelope. This is an extremely clear bearish signal — when all three Alligator lines (blue, red, green) are pointing downward and diverging, it means the trend's momentum is accelerating, and any attempt to go against the trend will be mercilessly crushed.

The Bollinger Bands are simultaneously opening downward, with the price hugging the lower band for a small bullish candle rebound. There is a key detail here: the price running along the lower band indicates that bearish forces are absolutely dominant, and the so-called "rebound" is merely a technical repair in an extremely oversold state, not a signal of trend reversal.

The MACD green bars are continuously shrinking and turning up, and the KDJ indicator is forming a golden cross at low levels — these two signals seem bullish on the surface, but they are actually the most dangerous "sugar-coated bullets." In a downtrend, MACD green bar contraction and a KDJ low-level golden cross are often just a brief respite in a bearish trend, a release of short-covering demand accumulated during the decline, not an active long attack. History has proven countless times that in a clear bearish pattern, this level of rebound can last at most 1-3 days before encountering more violent selling pressure.

The heavy resistance from multiple moving averages above blocks the possibility of a significant upward move. From the daily chart perspective, the 5-day, 10-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages are all in a bearish alignment. For the price to break through these moving average resistances, massive capital injection is needed. Against the backdrop of continuous ETF outflows and sluggish market sentiment, where would such capital come from?

III. Key Levels: $61,400-$61,800 Is the Line of Life and Death, $58,200-$58,800 Is the Next Target

From a technical analysis perspective, there are several key levels worth paying close attention to:

Upper resistance: $61,400-$61,800 area. This range was a small platform support during the previous decline, which has now turned into strong resistance after being broken. At the same time, this level coincides with the convergence area of the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, a position that bears must hold firmly. If the price rebounds to this level and meets resistance and falls back, it will be an excellent short-selling window.

Lower support: $58,200-$58,800 area. This level was an important low point area since August 2024 and also a consolidation platform before Bitcoin's new rally from $61,000. If bearish forces continue to be released, the probability of the price dropping to this area is very high. Once this level is lost, the market will face a more severe test — Peter Schiff previously warned that if Bitcoin falls below $50k, it could drop below $20k.

Deeper support: $56,000-$57,000 area. This was the last important platform before the 2024 bull run started and is also the cost base for many long-term holders. If the price really falls to this level, it means that almost all of the 2024-2025 bull market gains will be wiped out, dealing a devastating blow to market confidence.

IV. The Harsh Truth of Capital: Smart Money Is Withdrawing, Retail Investors Are Bottom-Fishing

One of the most noteworthy aspects of this decline is the structural change in capital flows.

From ETF data, Bitcoin ETFs recorded their strongest monthly net inflow in April 2026 since the beginning of the year — $1.97 billion, led by BlackRock's IBIT with about $2 billion in inflows. However, as June arrived, the situation reversed sharply, and capital began to flow out continuously.

More interestingly, amid net outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, Ripple (XRP) saw a net inflow of $10.6 million, Solana $7.1 million, and Hyperliquid even $28 million. This indicates that capital is not leaving the crypto market but is undergoing a "sector rotation" — flowing from the largest market cap Bitcoin and Ethereum to smaller-cap, higher-beta altcoins.

This pattern of capital rotation historically appears in the late stages of a bull market. When large capital begins to retreat from mainstream coins and chase high-risk, high-reward altcoins, it usually means market risk appetite is sharply increasing, which is a precursor to a bubble burst.

V. Trading Strategy: Rebound Is Not a Reversal, Shorting Is Better Than Going Long

Combining technicals, capital flows, and market sentiment, the current trading strategy should be very clear:

First, do not be fooled by a few small bullish candles. In a clear bearish trend, any rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions or short, not a reason to chase upwards. Signals like a KDJ low-level golden cross or MACD green bar contraction can only bring at most 1-2 days of relief before a more violent decline.

Second, the $61,400-$61,800 area is an ideal entry point for shorting. If the price rebounds and meets resistance here, resolutely set up short positions, with a stop loss above $62,000. This level is not only a key former support turned resistance but also a dense area of short-term moving averages, offering a very reasonable risk-reward ratio.

Third, the downside target first looks at the $58,200-$58,800 area. This is the next important support platform and the first technical target after bearish forces are released. If this level is lost, downside space will open up further.

Fourth, maintain position management and avoid heavy bottom-fishing. Before the trend clearly reverses, any bottom-fishing is "catching a falling knife." Even if you believe in Bitcoin's long-term value, you should wait for clear bottom signals to appear before gradually building positions, rather than blindly adding in a downtrend.

VI. Final Thoughts: The Storm Is Not Over, Patience Is the Best Weapon

From its launch at $61,000 in August 2024 to its historic highs in 2025, and now back to around $60k, Bitcoin's entire trajectory constitutes a complete macro bull market cycle. The market is searching for a new equilibrium price, and this process is bound to be painful.

For investors, the most important thing now is to stay clear-headed. Do not be blinded by short-term rebounds, nor be swept away by panic into irrational decisions. In a clear bearish trend, following the trend is always the safest choice.

Remember: In a bear market, being in cash is a strategy; in a downtrend, shorting is wisdom. And when the storm truly passes, those who preserved their capital and maintained patience will be the ones qualified to reap the richest rewards in the next bull market.

The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article is purely technical analysis and market interpretation, not constituting any investment advice.

(Note: The price data in this article is as of June 25, 2026. The market changes rapidly; please refer to real-time quotes.)

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